The consensus projects that AI-related capital expenditure (capex) by major tech companies will double by 2026, reaching $918 billion, and climb to $1.5 trillion by 2027.

Beyond that point, the curve flattens: 10% growth in 2028, 3% in 2029, and 2% in 2030.

This detail is more significant than the absolute figure.

For companies that sell chips, energy, and data center infrastructure, revenue depends on continued growth in investment—not merely on investment remaining at a high level.

If capex stabilizes at $1.7 trillion, suppliers will need to find growth elsewhere from 2028 onward.

On the flip side, the burden falls on those making the investments.

Spending $1.7 trillion annually requires a return, which is why the credit market has already begun charging some of these companies higher costs for capital.