oh _man_, these are some WELL-FORMULATED ARGUMENTS RIGHT THERE. 

Where's the Undisc serious material on this??

denlillaapan

I'm also wondering just how negative the expected returns would have to be for a bitcoin-only prediction market, before it became a worse deal than tradfi. I'm in year four of bitcoin and we're sitting at about 4x from when I started. Had I plowed everything into a bitcoin prediction market, I'd still expect to be up about 3.9x. Is that worse than bonds or index funds? (I get that it's worse than HODLing, but these schmucks aren't doing that either)

trading

Stacker_Stocks

econ

Prediction Markets Are Oh-So Dangerous (FT, David Booth)

My regurgitated rebuttals:
- Users with intentionally negative expected returns (hedgers and recreational gamblers) create positive EV for everyone else.
- You have no idea which side the insiders are on, so it's an irrelevant detail. They might happen to agree with you.
- Spreads can be lower than traditional books, so there's a relative value add from crowding out a worse product.
- We all have access to private information, so there are opportunities to be an insider if you wait for the right markets.

I'm also wondering just how negative the expected returns would have to be for a bitcoin-only prediction market, before it became a worse deal than tradfi. I'm in year four of bitcoin and we're sitting at about 4x from when I started. Had I plowed everything into a bitcoin prediction market, I'd still expect to be up about 3.9x. Is that worse than bonds or index funds? (I get that it's worse than HODLing, but these schmucks aren't doing that either)