Yes, I'm back making another chess market. And yes, there's another major chess tournament this month.
The chess world is insane: drama everywhere.
Meaning, importantly, that Javokhir and Gukesh are not participating. (duh) #1610211
This format is sort of more along the lines of what Magnus wanted FIDE to turn toward, with a mix of time controls and an open tournament sort of situation rather than the grueling one-on-one matches the world championship consists of #1608324
So, our beloved chess No. 1 and GOAT is here, pwning it off.
I kind of don't quite understand all the nuances of the format (but as you follow along the tourney, it usually makes more sense!!) #1609473
...and if it doesn't, I shall be around to help! (or, you know, just ask your favorite AI; what do I care -.-)
ANYWAY:
There's 24 players in the tournament, about half with roughly 0% chance of winning. I couldn't be arsed funding/specifying all potential winners, so I just included the tops/my favs -- and shoved all the others into, well, "Others."
Since we're all degenerate gamblers here, I thoroughly expect "Team Hans" (#1609678) to bid up his poor chances (currently at 7%) to higher than that. I launched it with these probabilities (and then added some neat bids myself so the market doesn't look so sad!)
- Magnus: 30%
- Nodirbek: 20%
- Pragg: 10%
- Niemann: 5%
- Others (including Rapport, Arjun, Fabiano, Nepo, Anish, Shak) = 35%
Magnus is _obviously_ the top favorite in every tournament he plays, but what's so cool about elite chess in the ano 2026 is that on a good day any of these guys can beat him in a single game or two... especially in the shorter time controls where the youngsters (Nodirbek, Alireza, Niemann etc) definitely have a good chance.
Go forth and bet, my chessy friends
And let's look forward to a wonderful month of even-more wonderful chess!
My guess is Magnus will want to be at the top of his game right? Since this is the format he pushed for
...and every other player wants to spoil his chances by being the guy (or, improbably, woman) who beats him in the format he preferred!
Happy to overpay for Magnus.
Wesley So and Fabiano Caruana are strong contenders, and "Mozart" [Magnus Carlsen] is always a favorite in any tournament he enters. This event must be generating tremendous anticipation among chess enthusiasts worldwide; its unique concept is set to shift many dynamics—the format is incredibly compelling. We may already know who the champion will be, but a surprise would be a welcome change of pace from recent tournaments.
I hope you keep us updated @denlillaapan