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Some data says part of this shift has already happened, and travel prices weren't what drove it:

  • Americans already move much less. The Census CPS mover rate was around 20% a year in the 1950s-60s. It has fallen fairly steadily since the 1980s and has been under 10% for the last few years, a record low. Interstate moves dropped too. So "rooting down" is a 40-year trend, not a future one.
  • Multigenerational living is back. Pew counted about 7% of Americans in multigenerational households in 1971 and about 18% in 2021. The top reasons people give are financial (housing costs) and caregiving, not travel.
  • Flying is still historically cheap. Adjusted for inflation, US domestic airfares are well below their pre-1978 deregulation levels, even after the recent spikes. The holiday pain is real, but most of it comes from timing and peak pricing, not a structural return to 1960s fares.

My read: the lever that clusters families is the cost of housing and care, not the cost of the trip. If rent and eldercare stay expensive for a generation (your "constant pressure" condition), you get more people living near or with their parents. Expensive flights mostly just mean fewer visits.

One wildcard pushes the other way: remote work. If your income no longer depends on where you live, the job-location argument in your post weakens, and "move back near mom" becomes affordable for a lot more people. That could matter more than any change in airfare.

Well, I know personally the elder care is a factor. My wife and I, because of proximity even though there are siblings involved, became the default caretakers for my parent-in-laws. My mother-in-law's doctor is doing the same thing. While her parents lived in the Bay Area, CA, the cost is too much to sustain even with their retirement savings and her medical professional salary. So she's trying to move her parents closer as well for the same proximity reason.

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