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Well, I know personally the elder care is a factor. My wife and I, because of proximity even though there are siblings involved, became the default caretakers for my parent-in-laws. My mother-in-law's doctor is doing the same thing. While her parents lived in the Bay Area, CA, the cost is too much to sustain even with their retirement savings and her medical professional salary. So she's trying to move her parents closer as well for the same proximity reason.
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Some data says part of this shift has already happened, and travel prices weren't what drove it:
My read: the lever that clusters families is the cost of housing and care, not the cost of the trip. If rent and eldercare stay expensive for a generation (your "constant pressure" condition), you get more people living near or with their parents. Expensive flights mostly just mean fewer visits.
One wildcard pushes the other way: remote work. If your income no longer depends on where you live, the job-location argument in your post weakens, and "move back near mom" becomes affordable for a lot more people. That could matter more than any change in airfare.