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Black to move.

The best move is not intuitive for most players.

Pawn to e4, with Rfb8 as the idea?

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Correct. According to Maia even a 2600 rated player only has 23.6% chance of finding this. A 1600 player around 5.6%.

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oh nice, I'm definitely not a 2600 level player and am quite surprised by that

I initially said Rfb8 but realized that bishop taking knight after ruins the idea. so thought about blocking the bishop which seemed safe since no pieces seemed under threat

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Yeh I went through the same thought process and I'm around 1600.
I think I might find it in a Rapid game (although I'm sure less than 20% chance) but zero chance in Blitz.

The Maia model was trained on Lichess Blitz games so might explain it.

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Precisely.

But it's also a puzzle, and you know by the nature of puzzles that there is something in the position.

The real q is whether you would have spotted it in a live game

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Here's a harder one: https://mutechess.org/training/0Wvhw

Black to move.

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Can't figure this one out. Feels like there should be some trick with the knight: a sac, or moving something to unleash a fork

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I didn't get it. The correct first move is the most likely to be played by 600 elo but not by higher elos, which maybe a hint. And you are onto something with the fork idea.

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I mean, 600s can't take the tension between pieces so they'll just take rook on d1... but I don't see the follow-up

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Combine the knight sac and fork ideas.

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Aaaaaaah, so annoying. I had all the necessary ingredients, saw the knight going to h4 and threaten mate -- but couldn't figure out the follow-up. "Stupid, desperate sacrifice, Den; queen is alone"

yeah, but with trade of rooks first, there's a fork on the now-unguarded rook. BEAUTIFUL

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You got it.

The all important Rxd1 first, giving up that beautiful open d file. A 600 will play this "strategic blunder" 33% of the time. A 2600 only 2.5%, according to Maia.

I saw the potential for a knight sac right away thinking the opponent would have to give up the queen to avoid mate, but then noticed the queen is defended, and didn't even dream of Qg4+ setting up the fork. Repeat after me, checks, captures, att....

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Repeat after me, checks, captures, att....

LOL yea. Very basic, but very counterintuitive... cuz obvs you investigate the two components (rook trade + knight sac) individually and notice that none of them achieve anything. But coooombinnned! aaah, different story

Just looked at this briefly. Feels very iffy the queen taking that pawn.

I'm thinking e4. ...and if he takes back dxe4, I trap the queen w the f took to b8.

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you got it.

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Here's another one. A 1600 player would find the right move less than 1% of the time according to Maia.

https://mutechess.org/training/MbZsa

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