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I wonder how much of it is economic. South Korea wasn't able to get their people to have kids, even with large economic incentives. But maybe not large enough to cover what people feel are out of control costs and unstable jobs? I'm sure there's a cultural element too in terms of people have different expectations for what parents should provide for their children.
Agreed. Perception and actual economic feasability are two different things, especially when combined with cultural expectations. If a teen girl is expected by high school senior year to be prepared to be married and by 19 have a first child, and that's pounded into her head at home, at school, and daily in her neighborhood, then it's a high likelihood that will happen. On the other hand, people raised that the cost of living is expensive, the household is always a on a budget, and raising a family is costly tends to leave a long-lasting impression in a young adult to avoid having children right away, regardless of child savings accounts or tax code incentives for growing families, for example. Regardless of what economists may actually say is doable, people and what they see, believe or hear from others are influenced far more towards children or not.
I know in my own example, I grew up in the 1970s and 1980s knowing kids right away was not doable. And it really wasn't viable until my 30s. Both of us also grew up with plenty of examples we know where people had teen pregnancies or married right out of high school and all were disasters. My wife didn't even want kids at first, and she's the same age as me. We ended up having two because it made sense in our mid-30s once we were financially secure and in house, not an apartment. That combination of income, housing, and feeling one is on track clicks in the head that a family then makes sense.
Anecdotally, married with no kids was always rare. Usually it was older second marriage people or DINKS, double-income no kids couples purposely avoiding kids permanently. Everyone else who got married that I knew eventually had at least one child. Half of them then ended up in divorce by 10 years.
I do think the number of single no kids and married parents shrinking is influenced by the cost of living. Without a viable career, it's hard to find a partner, and without a good career to grow in, it's hard to afford raising children. Both groups have been hammered by the cost of living becoming far more expensive since the 1970s.