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Idk how useful total network capacity is as a metric 🙄
The real bottleneck is the smallest channel between you and your recipient/sender. And not how big the network is as a whole.
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Why smallest channel? Not average channel size?
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I think you can split in smaller pieces to different routes to fit those possible bottlenecks, but in the end if the receiver has only one channel opened with small liquidity, then that is the problem.
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Sure, on an individual level, it's an insignificant metric.
But on the whole, it's useful to see how much Lightning adoption is growing. Total capacity is more important than number of channels or even number of nodes, I would think.
To be clear, number of nodes is incredibly important for Bitcoin, but LN I think capacity is more important.
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I had the pleasure to interact with Henrik (LN Capital CEO) several times...I find him very pragmatic, principled and quite analytical in his thinking
What distinguishes Henrik from the rest of the techy pack is that he understands the business side very very well
so when he expects 10k I believe him
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That must be a lot of wumbo channels then, hopefully as splicing and payjoin channel creation become more refined we will see better use of the capital, while 10k BTC routing payments is a nice marketing stat and shows use of LN it doesn't mean a lot of that capital is being used or used effectively
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There is litte evidence at this point to suggest this. For example capacity has stayed flat for almost year. So there is no growing trend at the moment.
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a year of brutal bear market ... so it makes sense not to see huge growth
Price is THE signal ... the higher it goes the more LN will attract people and capital
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IMO total LN capa is already near 10000 BTC once you take into account all the private channels. For Phoenix Wallet alone, all private channels between ACINQs node and the swarm of mobile nodes may represent dozens of BTC and maybe much more.
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It makes me wonder... what is the minimum amount of bitcoin needed on the lightning network to provide payments for the US and for the entire planet?
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depends on the bitcoin price and how many are actually in circulation.
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