pull down to refresh
0 sats \ 2 replies \ @faithandcredit 19 Apr 2023 \ parent \ on: Daily discussion thread
it maybe has a 99% probability of going to $3k but a 0.3% chance to go to $0
This assumes growth over the next 10 years will be minimal+other things. But lets see.
Adoption metrics are still good, lightning network is growing, hash rate is growing. Maybe we aren't in hyperbolic growth stage right now. There is a lot of damage from the crypto chaos of the last bull run and people watching bitcoin go from 69k to 16k. Economic risk, regulatory risk. There is a lot going on. Maybe we stagnate for awhile or maybe we have another round of the same old 4 year halving cycles. Personally, I would prefer if the halving cycles just went away and we had steady growth instead of the insane volatile swings but I don't think that is in the cards quite yet.
I have been skeptical of the recent move up. Not so much the bounce off of 16k to low 20s but the move up and above 30k, I think has really been manipulation to try and get eth to move as a high beta before large players can withdraw their eth rewards from the past 2.5 years. I expect volatility to continue as traders/speculators are playing futures aggressively right now and the withdraws likely take another couple weeks to play out.
If we have a major credit event in tradFi I think we will see a big and quick move down but I don't think it will be to 3k. Maybe if we have a prolonged depression or if there is some sort of ban on bitcoin from US or Europe.
reply
The major credit event is unfolding as we speak. Markets have not accepted the new reality of 5% interest rates yet. But it is a very serious situation.
The intent of raising rates to fight inflation is to cause this credit event. They want to cause unemployment af, so that demand and consumption drops. Its a terrible strategy if you ask me, but its the only one they have, if the fed is the only tool they are going to use to combat inflation and it looks like they are. (They can shrink government spending, decrease taxes, motivate productivity with some real leadership+more BUT THEY ARENT)
And i think the US gov will default on its debt this year. I tried to figure out what will happen in such an event, and other than pissing a lot of people off basically the US government will have to shrink spending about 30% or more. Considering that US government spending is such a big portion of GDP it will cause significant unemployment. My concern is that the US government then gets a clean slate and the economic conditions to implement all kinds of welfare and otherwise terrible policies to try and fight this unemployment. But all thats going to do to is cause a new great depression imo. which is bad for most asset prices (They may be deprssed but they may also be in serious shortage at the same time). But lets see.
reply