Hey, thanks for your question and interest in my thoughts!

Actually, I haven't been thinking much more about this then just making it possible to bet on stuff in a open, decentralized (=censorship-resistant) way yet. Since my current proposal still requires trust, I was more focused on finding a way to minimize trust. Like using fedimint as a fallback for arbitration if there is a dispute in the outcome of an event (for example, not sure yet if this makes sense haha).

I also thought about this more in a way of "commoditization of betting infrastructure" but not more related to the current financial markets.

For example, with this NIP, we could make bets on anything and thus hold people more accountable for what they say or do, possibly even with complete strangers.

You think your friend is not going to make it in time? Let's put 100 Satoshi on the line (with Lightning, we could even bet extremely tiny amounts like milli or microsatoshis). Either they make it in time and you lose but you also like that they made it in time, or they don't make it in time and you win. Kind of like hedging.

Conditional prediction markets which aren't regulated to death (mentioned in the video a linked in another comment here) could also have a huge positive impact on society, I think. However, to be fair, prediction markets also can have negative impacts like becoming "assassination markets" (that's also mentioned in the linked video).

But what you said also sounds very interesting and promising! I never bought a stock or participated in tradfi but what I've heard it's not very open and accessible.

So thanks for the inspiration!

I will try to make prediction markets on nostr/lightning a real thing and then let's see.