Here's how I see it playing out. If we're wrong, it just means that new forms of currency can't gain enough momentum to out-compete large, hegemonic currencies. The bright side is that those large, hegemonic fiat currencies will inevitably collapse. I believe this will happen even if they become CDBCs. The fiat collapse will be like a forest fire. The large trees get cleared out and the ashes provide ample ground for something new to flourish. Unfortunately, just like a forest fire, it will destroy and it will be extremely painful. In this scenario, we were wrong about Bitcoin being a tree or even a sapling. It was a seed whole time.

However, not every seed will become an ancient, full grown tree. I think it has a very good chance with little competition, but its not a guarantee. If it fails even after the forest fire, then MAYBE it will be just like HashCash or B-Money and serve as the foundation for another Satoshi Nakamoto. Don't hold your breath for this "new Bitcoin" or bet on it. I think we should stick to this as far as it will go and resist our cultural urge for immediate novelty.