Yes, nicely said with the basic assumptions.

Yes, creating enough confusion and doubt may be enough. That is why I am offering people to send on-chain to my C-Lightning node so that I will open a channel and send it all back to them over LN. See https://ln.anyone.eu.org/ but I also understand it will need to start with someone that knows me in person or me sending some on-chain funds to a 2of2 multi-sig wallet with the party that wants to enlighten and recycle their UTXO. No hurry :-)

Like many other things in game theory, others will think of the same and will just start doing it at some point if it is a good idea. So I just wait.