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The rate of return would need to be over 250% annually to be worth allowing someone else to custody my BTC, because that's the average rate of price increase of BTC. But any investment that promises >250% ROI is either a scam or it's a one-off arbitrage opportunity with high risk.
Holding BTC is far safer and more reliable than any investments right now, especially consider we are going into a global economic depression.
I see where you are going with this but 200% plus past returns doesn't promise 200% plus future returns and custodying with someone and letting them lend out your bitcoin doesn't guarantee 100% impairment but opens the potential for that. I like the framework. I think you are on the right track of how to think about it
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