Hope for the best ($241k), plan for the worst ($10k).

Don't borrow money to buy Bitcoin. Keep a month's worth of income in cash on hand, so that you can't starve. Have a plan for how you will use your BTC to pay for things like surgery, car repair, and evacuating due to natural disaster or war.

I was going to start this comment with "Lyn Alden is absolutely brilliant," but that's not a useful description. She has incredible analytical skills and does not seem very prone to dogmatic positions (i.e. she appears to be a bitcoin maximalist but she doesn't use that term as far as I know. I can definitely see her evaluating every shitcoin on its own merits, which I respect much more than the whole laser eye thing). I subscribe to her paid newsletter and highly recommend it to anyone who cares about understanding money, investments, etc (although if you are a bitcoin maxi to the point that you think stocks are shitcoins, you probably won't gain much from it).

Without disrespecting her paywall, I will just say that she seems to be bullish on bitcoin in the medium to long term, but has no strong opinion regarding near term prices.

The beginning of an s-curve looks exponential. We need to go more vertical for this S-curve to come to fruition.

Friendly reminder that it may not.

Reasons:

All of these have 10's of thousands of BTC. Some have more than 100k. Illiquid supply is not a good metric as someone can send 100k BTC in 1 transaction to an exchange & fat finger.

These can only do it once, but something to keep in mind & not to get too large of an expectation for the coming bull market

She says it’s not her base case, but there is a case nonetheless. @TheRationalRoot said something similar recently pointing to Bitcoin’s illiquid supply, which has been increasing steadily since 2020.

I think the last cycle had multiple "black swan events": the pandemic, war in Ukraine and the threat of World War 3 due to China invading Taiwan [0]. So I think the bitcoin price was under heavy pressure.

Assuming this doesn't happen again, Lightning adoption taking off because of inscriptions and more exchanges integrating it, shitcoins finally getting regulated and the public learning that bitcoin is different, we could see multiple "white swan events"

[0] not sure if I am using the term "black swan event" correctly