Most people overrate the chance of bitcoin's success. I'd put it at 50/50, but most act like it's a done deal. Don't get me wrong, the alternatives to Bitcoin are even worse, and there is a 0% of making it holding cash and cash equivalents, but let's be realistic about a 14 year old free and open source software project taking on the eternal realities of predatory finance, exploration, empire, and cantillionare politics.