"Urban Doom Loop" Drives Time Bomb in Commercial Real Estate \ stacker news ~bitcoin

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"Urban Doom Loop" Drives Time Bomb in Commercial Real Estate www.profstonge.com/p/urban-doom-loop-drives-time-bomb

1021 sats \ 3 comments \ @k00b 15 Jul 2023 bitcoin

0 sats \ 2 replies \ @elvismercury 16 Jul 2023

Ha, I came here to post this and found this dupe.

I would love to hear people's thoughts on this -- there must be some dealing with / knowledgeable about commercial real estate here. This is the type of post that, after I read it, gets me all stirred up, like I've seen a vision of the future and can't see why everyone isn't talking about it or making giant life choices based on the inevitable future.

And then I think (as I said elsewhere) if most of the world is not acting as if something is true, maybe it's not as true as you think, or as someone else has represented. The world is complicated. In the fields where I have expert status, smart, well-informed people of goodwill disagree completely with each other ALL THE TIME. Granted, they don't disagree on the fundamentals; but still, a non-expert could read a paper endorsing position A and be completely convinced; another non-expert could read paper B and be completely convinced of that. All while everyone operating in good faith.

I found the post on epistemic learned helplessness and found it to be about the truest description I've ever seen of this phenomenon. Should be required reading for all modern human beings.

Anyway, would really love to understand this real estate topic better.

10 sats \ 1 reply \ @k00b OP 16 Jul 2023

there must be some dealing with / knowledgeable about commercial real estate here.

I'm definitely not knowledgable about real estate, but I remember it took roughly 4 years for the 2008 crisis to fully shake out. The trade frequency in real estate is relatively low which seems to make the market catatonic during periods of volatility.

if most of the world is not acting as if something is true, maybe it's not as true as you think, or as someone else has represented.

People who are knowledgeable about commercial real estate are probably heavily invested and are busy losing their shirts. The actors will likely not be commercial real estate people and will naturally be behind the market.

That's my cartoonish market view anyway.

I found the post on epistemic learned helplessness and found it to be about the truest description I've ever seen of this phenomenon. Should be required reading for all modern human beings.

This was my first time reading that post. Thanks for sharing. I tend to take ideas seriously when there are many provably independent sources validating them. Otherwise it seems we are all arguing our guesses (and practically everyone's guesses are untrustworthy).

I even think you can reliably discover new and promising ideas by seeking the intersection of independent guesses.

202 sats \ 0 replies \ @elvismercury 16 Jul 2023

I tend to take ideas seriously when there are many provably independent sources validating them. Otherwise it seems we are all arguing our guesses (and practically everyone's guesses are untrustworthy).

Yes! Agree wholeheartedly. This is why I'm so hungry for non-correlated inputs for discussion on btc stuff. The implications are literally as complicated as the entire world, so the notion that Saifedean Ammous and his merry sycophants have already penned the final word on how it will, or should, play out is, to me, almost criminally naive.

I even think you can reliably discover new and promising ideas by seeking the intersection of independent guesses.

It has been so fascinating to me how some ideas playing out in, for instance, computational vision, are concrete expressions of philosophical arguments from the 1950s. There's so much alpha in finding those intersections, in btc and in everything else.