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0 sats \ 3 replies \ @grayruby 21 Jul 2023 \ parent \ on: Daily discussion thread
Probably not yet. I think there is some more storm before the skies clear. I still expect the economy to fall off a cliff in the second half of the year. I am stacking regardless but if I had to guess I think it's more likely we see 20k again before end of year than 40k. I do think we hit 40k before the halving early next year though. Halving will be priced in earlier this time as there are more sophisticated actors.
I agree that we're headed into a deep recession. I can see and feel it in Austin - lots of homes for sale, more homeless, fewer tourists. It seems like people are generally getting back to taking their lives seriously again. Their stint as an investor on Robinhood has come to an end.
I suspect bitcoin decouples. Recessions aren't really recessions for rich people. Their allocations just change.
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All indicators point to the consumer finally being exhausted. Credit scores dropping as many now starting to miss payments. I think we could have one final push this summer of consumer spending as people aren't going to cancel vacations or events planned but then things start to get ugly.
I am not sure about bitcoin decoupling though. It seems to have started decoupling from Trad markets but if shit hits the fan I expect it to drop sharply with everything else. Maybe it just rebounds quicker.
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I heard that the US is going to lift the pause on student loan repayments soon? This specifically might have a negative impact on Bitcoin price as younger buyers (i.e. most of them) are forced to liquidate to cover bills.
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