1
Blackrock's ETF won't get approved until after a Senate crypto bill hits the floor. The first question nobody's bothered asking is who the AP's for the ETF are going to be. The second question is who will oversee the custodian and sub-custodians? Because the CFTC and SEC are a mile apart on that. It'll come, but not in the keyframes the derivative markets have all that volume stacked.
2
Binance is going to implode. Their BTC mining Pool averaged 11% of hashpower for quite a while, is down to 7% and I can see miners pulling out. Binance's stablecoin BUSD has fallen from #5 to #22 in mkt cap rank since the Paxos shit, and that's causing more trouble than people understand. Binance.US is in trouble, regulators the world over have had enough, the DOJ is kettling, employees are quitting, and their golden goose BNB—the one thing still holding them together can't fall below $200, or I'd expect a LUNA 2.0 situation.
3
Twitter's rebrand to x.com with a Worldcoin partnership and focus on becoming a WeChat 2.0 centralized payments platform is almost as frustrating as bitcoin twitter's acceptance and rush for blue check verification. I predicted this move by Musk earlier this year and was laughed at for whatever reason. The blue check shit still haunts me though.
4
Ethereum will decollateralize spectacularly. Over 90% of DeFi debt is stablecoins (the only MONEY within that protocol). But now you have LSTs (liquid staking tokens) exploding in volume, and LST platforms controlling huge percentages of the consensus. You see LST's derivative stacked to overcollateralize new stablecoin projects (Lehman dollars) which are monetizing rapidly, and worse, you see LST compound loans used in staking ETH. Also, if you have L1 staking and LST's, what exactly is going to be used on a "scaled" layer 2? ETH? No, derivatives of derivatives, or stablecoins. No clue why this hasn't been brought up. Currently, if there's any sudden change in market conditions, the whole thing will bottleneck, get smashed and emerge as completely captured. Dude, the PoS version of ethereum HAS NOT been tested like that. But alas, they have the Foundation there to protect their customers.
Anyway, all this shit will overlap, and bitcoin will double-bottom around $15k. I love its volatility, besides being its best evangelist, it's what makes it so fair this early, giving everyone opportunities to acquire.
House cleaning rapid fire:
-Bitcoin the protocol is stronger than it's ever been
-Nostr I have even more hope for with twitter's moves. Nostr has hit some rough patches tho. Their clients need content creators. And they need another year of ironing.
-ARK liquidity pool is the most exciting development since Nostr, and I hope bitcoiner's give a vault BIP the go ahead
-StackerNews I adding features, adding users
-A PSBT v2 probably changes the smart contract game eventually
-The second part of 2024 will be horn gore (bullish)