The hodlers are hoping for a doomsday scenario and hyperinflation, as a driver for the ultimate mass adoption. I see this as quite plausible, but far from certain.
As a currency, BTC is too slow and not compelling. Lightning is way to complex, over-engineered by committee, does not work when the recipient is offline, I doubt it will gain much more mass adoption than PGP email signatures from the 1990s.
The valid use cases for layer 2 are micropayments, lack of chargebacks and lack of benevolent payment processors that decide which transactions are appropriate. But Lightning as a tech just does not cut it IMO.
Oh and in lighting you need a balance to initiate a custodial channel, or trust some rando provider online. This kills onboarding and interest from ux perspective with an y real amount of money.
From the over engineering point you make and the UX perspective Monero is great.
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