But nobody uses Monero! Not even the criminals. Not even the journalists risking their lives on darknet are asking for it. I'm around the space (as an observer) enough to know. I'm just saying, what Monero advocates claim it's doing is different from the reality on the ground I'm watching. Bitcoin is taking a bigger and bigger hold. As an aside, Monero is the only project I respect outside bitcoin. I like Monero people, who generally tend to be pro-bitcoin, smart, pro-freedom, less about mindless speculation.

You're correct that it currently takes an extra 3+ steps to get the privacy you get with Monero by default (although many advancements on the LN look to end that, and the possibility that, with a circular economy, and high data set from global use, bitcoin's privacy spikes naturally).

But if you're trying to convert a lot of Monero into fiat, then it's going to take more steps and time OVERALL. This is the problem. You're going to be doing a gazillion transactions. The bitcoin advantage is as you say, but also because there are off-ramps all over the world.

There's no XMR DEX with any volume or significant asks.

Bisq? I'm active there. No volume. LocalMonero? If you bought every ask listed you might get $100k of XMR

And it's only more of a desert after these two.

The cartels prefer bitcoin, because their Chinese suppliers for fentanyl precursors only accept that, and in a darker turn for sound money, there's an enormous push to make bitcoin legal tender in Mexico, which is being politically financed by cartels, for obvious reasons.

There's no darknet volume either I'm telling you. The places we find XMR volume are the remaining CEX's offering this forbidden fruit, which defeats the whole purpose of using Monero obviously, and nobody in their right mind would send a bunch of Monero to a CEX from outside it.

I don't know what's going to happen to Monero if the second layer(s) of bitcoin achieve the privacy some devs think it can.