I bud economic simulation models. In spreadsheets and in python.
With these models you have all the macro economic data of a country and you can simulate “what-if” this happens scenarios.
These are still models, so you cannot exactly forecast with certainty what is going to happen.
But you see tge relationships between economic indicators, between sectors of the economy, between what is happening outside the USA economy. Between the different asset classes.
Between fiat money parameters and Bitcoin.
My models do not yet have Bitcoin in them. But there are many factors in these models that affect the value of Bitcoin.
The value of the real estate assets, the value of bonds.
Let me ask you: how do you make sense of what is happening in the USA economy?
How do you bring all that is happening together and make sense of how it could impact you, your family and your net worth?
Are you thinking about this? Or do you just let it come and you don’t care?
How I think about this is like this:
- First I gather the most important data about an economy. Say like the USA. I go to many sources, I go to many websites and publications and I build the database.
This database has a history of data. Economic data.
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I turn some of these data into graphs. And I start to see patterns. You see for instance the gross domestic product going down, a recession and going up in periods of times.
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Then you turn all these data into a consistent economic investment and simulation framework. This means that for instance the real gross domestic product (e.g. this is what all the USA people is earning in income per year of producing per year) is now calculated.
You know exactly at this point HOW every indicator is calculated. You have a formula or an equation for it. This means you are not only looking at a figure or a graph. You now know exactly HOW this indicator is calculated.
- You can start analyzing all key indicators in the USA economy. Why is the debt per gdp increasing? What is causing this? You can see that the debt is created because revenues are lower than expenditures. Each year there is a deficit (because deficit is revenues minus expenditures). And this deficit goes on year after year and that is debt. Because the USA has to create debt to close the deficit.
At this point you can dive into each indicator and see how it is calculated.
While others thinking about the USA economy do not have all the relevant indicators you not only have a database of all the relevant indicators. You know how they are calculated.
- You can forecast all the indicators into the future. Imagine having all the realatiins between say 250 indicators in the USA economy for 2023. Also between 2000-2023.
And now you create a forecast from 2023-2025. Just two years. What you now have is a scan of the future of the USA economy. You got all the important factors playing together. The FED’s fund rate, the real gdp, taxes, revenues, unemployment, consumption of the households, investments, the bitcoin price (forecast).
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Now you can simulate what ifs. What if the USA inflation goes to 15%? People will have less purchasing power and consumption of households will decrease. Real gdp will decline. And that can lead to more unemployment. Increasing unemployment will also have an effect on consumption decreasing. These simulations help you scan the future, play with the USA economy.
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What will happen to the Bitcoin price? We know that debt cannot go on for ever. So at some point debt will become so high in percentage of gdp that things start breaking. You can analyze the trends with macro economic, investment and simulation models.
You can simulate what hapoens with the money supply when China and BRICS start turning their bonds back into USA dollars and sell these dollars for their currencies and all these dollars start going back home.
There will be more dollars looking for real estate and digital real estate: the Bitcoin.
Making the USA macro economic investment and simulation model.
It takes time to make these models. Looking for data. Creating the framework.
I only make these models if there is demand for it.
How would you want to use these models?
Would you be interested in the USA macro economic investment and simulation model?
Why? What questions would you want to tackle with it?
Would this model need to he open source so you can see it, change it, build on it?
How much would you donate to get this model? Would it be worth to you?
Would you join discussions, online discussions about the USA economy where we got all the data, all the indicators and we could run simulations and discuss the impact on Bitcoim based on macro economic data?
Let me know your thoughts and ideas. Anything you have is highly appreciated.