Is there math to this?
If we could play out humanity different times and ways, let's suppose Bitcoin gets invented/discovered in 100 of them. Of these, how many times does it fail at, 1, 5 , 20, 50, 100 years?
Can someone crunch the Maths and ELI5 for us?
Is there math to chaos theory of this?
There is no pseudo-math for this pseudo-science. This is like asking how many times the discovery of fire, electricity, or the wheel fail at n amount of years.
So you admit the discovery of Bitcoin is as important as fire and electricity. Hahah.
Jk.
No you're right, it's quite the juxtaposition, the discovery of binary code (1s and 0s) seems too simple and insignificant to underpin our entire digital infrastructure. Bitcoin might be as important in the digital world as fire was in the physical world, based on the affordances it will allow for.
Goddamn I am never selling
Correct.
There's definitely a way to approximate this mathematically.
Let's say in 5 years... what's the % "chance" that Bitcoin is defunctional.
Well it's not 100% chance... but it's also not 0% or... they have the LEAST probabilities.
If we were to simulate 5 years from now 100 times...
How many times is Bitcoin most likely to be defunctional?
First get the time stone from Dr. Strange, then use it to check 14 million possible futures.
You don't need to know whether Bitcoin will succeed or not.
You don't need to hope that Bitcoin will succeed.
You have to believe that Bitcoin will succeed.
You have to trust Bitcoin to succeed.
No there is no math to this. Some intuition about what you're asking:
Chaos theory was discovered by Edward Lorenz, a meterologist, while he was attempting to run some simple weather simulations on a computer in 1961. His weather system had only 12 parameters (eg. pressure here, temperature there, wind, ...). At one point, having run a few days simulation, he wanted to see a simulated sequence again, so he set the 12 parameters to equal those that had been printed right at the point he wanted to start simulating. But to his surprise, this resulted in a completely different weather system after only a few days.
The culprit turned out to be that his printer cut off a few decimal places from parameter values, so .506127 was printed as .506, and because the system self-interacted this discrepancy (this butterfly) soon disturbed the entire model (world).
So what you're asking for, the math for 100 parallel universes, requires a few more parameters than 12 in each universe (maybe 1000 for each human, each gas molecule...) and a lot longer than a few days. In short, the problem requires ..optimization
... so whats the equation? Lol
I know what you mean. I want the napkin math, back 2 the future type of probability
There is nothing new under the sun, the perfect money has been discovered many times before
Like what?