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I happen to think UBI is really good for bitcoin, acting like a fountain for BTC's monetization, creating a bigger necessity for decentralized money. One reason for this is because a CBDC+UBI will carry with it purchase voids, restrictions, geofencing, possibly expirations, all of which further hollows out the money's ability to be an effective store of value. You also bring the money a step closer to politicians, who start deciding things over independent Central Banks. Airdrop degeneracy anyone? Then there's the surveillance aspect which is related to the above but discrete, and means that traditional tax havens don't work when their ramps are surveilled, and when combined with the previous properties is deadly. Then you have a game theory thing going on where what traditionally gives money volume in forex has an added wrinkle of valuing whatever CBDC proffers the most "freedom", but bitcoin exists, which is why I think the BTC/USD pair will eventually take out the volume of EUR/USD, the current forex darling. This is all happening while inflation, monetary expansion, debt, etc, are increasing. For me UBI makes sense in the fiat system. We're going to replace that system. We don't need to virtue signal with Austrian ideals or pretend like we're going to make the fiat system work. It's a dying system. CBDC's and UBI are a means to the transition. On the other side of monetization, the fixed liberties of bitcoin start to shine brighter than its fixed monetary properties.
I can definitely see your point its like the final phase of fiat where you kind of admit its worthless so just everyone try to spend it as fast as you can and lets see if we can keep kicking the can down the road as we have controlled consumption and production with rules based money
Like you say the money becomes even more political and creates more weird incentives and ways to game the system, that have unintended consequences. Right now the money is corrupt but not to a point where critical operations fail like growing food or generating energy, thats my real worry for UBI maybe its far fetched but even just watching the crazy stuff people are willing to do to get government grants and contracts in the current system, makes me feel like UBI will be like that x10000
I think all of us here are aware of Bitcoins game theory pushing a migration but Im not yet convinced a large enough minority gets it yet, to drive change, the idea of free money is so strong thats why shitcoins do so well for a brief period.
Governments can do what shitcoins do for even longer with UBI, but lets see, I guess more fiat pain can convince people