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20 sats \ 1 reply \ @Storyteller 31 Aug 2023 \ on: People in the US are getting poorer since 1963 (housing data shows). bitcoin
If you want to continue this research here are some suggestions
Try to find data about the average household income, per state
Find data about the debt per household (credit card debt and student loan debt)
Try to find data about household savings per state
Try to find data about average house prices per state.
Try find out any data about down payments and mortgage payments (how much rent do you need to pay based on the current interest rate).
This will balance you macro economic first indication.
You will probably see that the situation is worse in some states where house prices sky rocketed.
But there is another pattern in the system (I’m currently analyzing systems)
Houses are investment for some people. Real estate investments. You got REITs real estate investment trusts I think. The wealthy people became wealthier because they bought real estate (houses).
So while average Joe can’t buy a house because his income is not increasing a lot compared to the house prices, the Wealthy James’ got more income/asset price aporeciation because James owns REITs and maybe 3 houses as assets.
Once you accumulate assets you become wealthier because it is exponential.
So the real estate sector also affects the income distribution. More real estate is higher income. That makes the income distribution skewer. So the average gdp per capita is not always the best metric.
James will get a higher piece of the GDP in profit and rent one he gets the assets and the house.
Next imagine what the Chinese who receives the dollars, because there is a huge deficit on the current account of USA with China, will do with his dollars.
He will buy USA bonds but he will also buy houses.
USA houses.
This is another indirect effect of the USA system. It is called a feedback loop.
Now a lot of the dollars ending up in the hands of Chinese are being put back into the real estate sector.
There is higher demand for houses now from Chinese. A larger population. They come to some states and throw dollars around.
Average Joe can’t make it.
Future
Now the BRICS work together. They dumb the dollar. The petro dollars. All those dollars coming back home.
What do you think will happen with the future price of homes. Can you forecast that?
Imagine 10 times more dollars comming home and 25% of those dollars chasing real estate property.
And the average gdp/capita only increasing with say 2%.
You got a great case.
Maybe you need to start buying more Bitcoin.
Because according to the stock to flow model Bitcoin has a higher stock to flow than real estate and will also be higher than gold. So Bitcoin is more precious than real estate.
I expect some of that Chinese dollars and also the local dollars panicking and start chasing Bitcoin.
I build macro economic models. To analyze these scenarios. What happens if this indicator changes. I have the USA macro and investment model on my wishlist to make.
You cannot firecast exactly what is going to happen but you at least can see and start abalyze how things are related.
What are you going to do? Are you going to stack more sats? The digital liquid real estate?
Lol
Hey thanks for the ideas for a deeper analysis!
My main goal of this very brief analysis was to consider the largest timeframe available, and at the same using only the most reliable sources.
I will try to research those topics, because I agree my analysis is clearly insufficient considering all the nuances and factors there are.
I do not know though if I will be able to get reliable data back from the 60s.
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