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Summary:
Blockware Intelligence’s newest report, titled “Bitcoin is Certainty in an Uncertain World”, compares the uncertain macroeconomic environment of 2022 with the immutable transparency and scarcity of the Bitcoin network.
BTC still ranging, volatility compressing
13.8% of BTC supply has now moved between $38K-$41K
BTC correlation to NQ remains near all-time highs
Funding rates neutral
Asian trading hours are back at a premium for the first time since January
Be on the lookout for our podcast episode with Jack Mallers dropping tomorrow morning
Also, be on the lookout for our upcoming report on Bitcoin user adoption
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Bitcoin is different from all other assets (crypto and traditional) due to its unique property of immutable scarcity.
Unlike other commodities, Bitcoin has a predetermined algorithmic supply schedule that cannot be changed.
PPI is currently at 15.2%, and the only time it has ever been higher was for two quarters in 1974, as seen above. PPI tends to lead CPI as input costs rise for producers and eventually spill over to the consumer in the form of higher prices for produced goods.
Investors expect the Fed to increase interest rates in the short term so much (to fight inflation) that it ends up squeezing credit, causing a recession and ultimately leading to lower interest rates in the future.
Bitcoin, like gold, is a hard, scarce commodity with no counterparty risk, meaning if you hold it yourself, you do not have to trust any other entity to custody (like gold), pay you back (like fixed income), or successfully run a company (like equities).
Not only does Bitcoin have superior monetary properties compared to gold, but it is also disruptive new technology. This tech is starting to gain traction at the same time as incoming supply is exponentially decreasing.
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Mining Bitcoin
Mining Bitcoin becomes increasingly interesting in an inflationary environment. Due to the nature of energy contracts with utilities, miners can lock in their electricity rate for a number of years. This means you can keep your operating expenses fixed while prices of virtually everything else, including the Bitcoin you earn and the machine itself, are likely to be increasing over time.
These daily positive cash flows will likely persist even under extreme short-term (12-18 months) volatility. As noted in this Blockware Intelligence Research Report, new generation mining rigs behave as safe haven Bitcoin dividend assets. If the price of Bitcoin falls significantly, older less efficient rigs become unprofitable first, they turn off, difficulty drops, and new generation machines begin earning more Bitcoin.
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That last part shared had a link to the following post:
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