Many people are saying that we are in the middle of a bear market. That 69k was the top until after the next halving event. That might be true. We could go below 37k, 35k, 30k, 25k or even lower. I do not know where the bottom is or when it will occur (or if it has already occurred). I actually realized in the last few days that we are starting to see the type of projects that in my mind make no sense and are pure money grabs that I believe typified the top of the 2017/2018 market. I mean I just heard about a project that pays people to walk? From what little i can tell it's a complete Ponzi scheme with no real end result other than a large group of people losing money. I mean if it's not a Ponzi scheme then let's get everyone in the world whatever little gizmo makes this happen and we can all live in peace and harmony. Maybe I'm incorrect but i don't think it's an inaccurate statement about what this token is and where the future of it lies. If you have a different opinion, that's fine. I'm just observing what I see and any hate mail will be sent to /dev/null
Current macro events (rising inflation, rising interest rates, short supplies along with general supply chain issues) and the reality that crypto in general are viewed a "risk on" investments means that the wider stock and investment markets will in general dictate price pressure on BTC. In my view, both the US stock market and world markets in general are not done heading down. I have discussed these views about possible outcomes for the US market in particular on the March 13th episode of Generational Wealth with Cryptocurrency. I outline three possible outcomes including: a recession of about the level of the 2007-2008 financial / housing crisis, a depression roughly equivalent to the Great Depression, or something worse involving hyperinflation and what amount to a complete reset of the US economy. At this point I'm becoming very confident it will be the second or third of these that happens. I wished it was going to be a first possibility but current events and trends are leaving very little doubt in my mind.
Now this is all gloomy news. And I can "feel" the discouragement rising up. But don't lose faith! If you got into crypto for a quick buck..well maybe it's time to consider doing something else. But if you got into crypto for the life changing results then this is where things get serious. Satoshi Nakamoto did not create bitcoin as a way to get rich. That is indisputable, given the fact that he has a wallet of one million bitcoin that has never been touched. It was created as a way to free the common person from the tyranny of governments that seek to control their citizens financials lives. Where constant manipulation of markets occurs. Where currencies have no backing and the debasement of those currencies is constantly occurring. It was created as a stable currency with a fixed amount of supply, a way for someone to store value (in the form of bitcoin/satoshis) and then be able to pass that value on to their future generations without governmental interference. It was created as a way to keep someone from being arbitrarily financially censored. Those are only some of the reasons that bitcoin was created. Not to make people rich by trading a token around.
So what do we do? The price seems to be falling. That's ok. I have a saying, probably copied from someone else but i don't remember who it was that said it first. "When in doubt..zoom out". Stop worrying about the micro and where bitcoin is today, this week, month or even year. Four years from now we won't be worrying about 10,20,30 or 40k bitcoin. It's why I recommend that you DCA (dollar cost average) your purchases. Stop trying to guess the price of bitcoin. Just set up ( via Strike for example) a daily or weekly bitcoin purchase. As Nike famously advertised "just do it". You can now get part of your pay in bitcoin. You can earn bitcoin on sites like stacker.news. Do your part in brining about the bitcoin economy and stop worrying about the rest.
It's funny. The price has been going down since mid November. And yet the macro news about bitcoin usage and adoption has never been more bullish. I retweeted a tweet from Charles Edwards a few days ago some things that happened in April alone:
And yet here we are with prices depressed. Still correlated to the markets. Don't fret my friend. The bitcoin revolution is not dead. It's not even close. A world-wide great depression type event might be necessary in order for countries to realizes that the Keynesian economics model is a broken toy that should be discarded for meaningful financial systems based on assets like bitcoin. You CAN NOT LOSE FAITH. This is not the end. There is no government in the world that can keep you from exercising your financial sovereignty. They can ban mining, they can ban trading. They can tax everything in a desperate attempt to remain solvent. But they can't take your seed phrase from you.
The day will come - I believe in the next 10 years if not much less - where the bitcoin/market correlation will not exist. That BTC will be the de facto world currency. Countries will settle in bitcoin for the commodities markets. That the majority of the connected people of the world will be using lightning apps like Strike to buy goods and services on a regular basis. Cash will probably be dead to be honest for good or bad.
Banks and other such financial services will be vastly different. Much more transparent with new services that seek to empower customers. A number of the major world powers will be using CBDC (central bank digital currencies). They have their reasons for doing so but the reality is that if a currency such as a digital US dollar isn't backed by a real asset like gold (or bitcoin) it is no different than the current dollar and it's even easier to manipulate. Unless these currencies have backing of a real nature they are bound to fail just like any other forms of fiat.
Times of turmoil like this are definitely stressful. Just remember, with great changes like this comes great opportunity to prosper. Keep your focus on the long term goals of financial sovereignty and understand that it can not come from a government fiat platform of any kind. Bitcoin isn't dead. Bitcoin isn't dying. Bitcoin isn't even hurt. These market manipulations will one day soon no longer affect the price of bitcoin as it decouples and proves itself as something different. Vive la révolution de bitcoin!