Awareness of bitcoin has scaled linearly with its price IMO. The higher the price, the more awareness, the less bitcoin lost. The higher the price, the more solutions to mitigate loss, the more incentives to innovate loss mitigation. We have innovation in scripting, hybrid custody, and discussions on vault BIPs now. Directionally, less bitcoin will be lost over time, if not, then FOSS has failed. So I disagree that emissions will converge on zero with lost BTC. I don't even think large natural disasters will matter, because we're closing in on some pretty epic recovery mitigation.

Then there's the issue of deep future quantum, where "lost" coins or pre-quantum cryptography wallets become an incentive for quantum computing competition itself, if there's not a trailing fork making those invalid.