Interesting perspective. I agree the shock is not as big effect on price as it did the last few years, however, it will still the primary catalyst for the next run up.

1.8% to 0.6% inflation rate is a 50% drop in inflation rate. 

Now there are 300k coins to be mined in a year. After the next halvening, 150k coins per year. 

bitcoin

Reminder to newcomers: Bitcoin's fourth ever supply shock will happen in less than 2 years. 

The first halving was very significant because the drop in the bitcoin supply inflation annual rate went from ~25% to ~12%.  

The second halving was also significant, when it went from ~8.3% to ~4.2%.

With the third halving, the drop went from ~3.7% to ~1.8%.

The next halving will put it well under 1% on an annual basis.

A 4% drop in 2017 created a supply shock.   A drop of less than 1%?   I'm not thinkig that will be a "shock", at least not for the exchange rate.   For bitcoin miners, their income, in BTC terms, gets cut in half -- for them, that's a schock, certainly.  