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I feel dumb admitting this but until the last few years I didn't really know the difference between monetary inflation and price inflation. I mean, I thought I did but I really didn't. Inflation is way more complicated than I realized.
With that in mind the CPI is a load of crap. I haven't done the math to have exact numbers but it feels like 10-15% is about right overall. Food is a big one. Both groceries and dinning out. Dinning out seems like it has been closer to a 20% increase. Many goods I buy every few years have went up over 20% since 2020. I don't think this is all due to the FED either. From what I gather it has many factors. One is supply chains. Another is a shrinking labor force which is why I think unemployment is so low. My energy bill is up over 20% as well. Pretty insane. Its what led me to invest in solar.
Now, I'm not saying the FED has no part of the blame, they do and they have lied over and over again to the people of the world. I say world because their actions hurt those in other nations that depend on the dollar more than they hurt US citizens. We at least get some benefit from the influx of cash even if it is outweighed by the negative effects. I really think we are kinda screwed for a few years at least. The problems weren't created over night and they won't be fixed by government intervention. I think things will get worse before they get better.
An exercise I like to do sometimes when trying to spot the difference between price inflation and monetary inflation is measure the price using something else.
For example, a decade ago my house cost $400k Also a decade ago a carton of eggs cost $2 Today my house is worth $800k And the carton of eggs is worth $4
In other words, they both doubled in price. Coincidence? Did the eggs change? Probably not. Did chickens change? Probably not. Chicken farms? Nope.
In other words, in 2013 my house cost 200,000 cartons of eggs. And in 2023 my house still costs 200,000 cartons of eggs.
Now I get this isn't a perfect measurement. The actual price of eggs does fluctuate with supply and demand. Housing prices fluctuate with supply and demand in the short term.
But it does put into perspective how much of price inflation is due to the expansion of the money supply vs supply and demand.
(turns out eggs make a pretty good unit of account but they're a terrible store of value)
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Haha eggflation.
No that's a useful exercise too.
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The frustrating thing about when people talk about inflation is that they almost always are referring to price inflation when complaining. But when you hear people talking about it you think about monetary inflation. The advancements in technology are constantly driving costs down and prices as well. This masks the effects of monetary inflation. Then you have shrinkflation where candy bars and goods are shrunk but the price remains the same. Products are diluted to avoid sticker shock. I get it when its just plebs talking but it is unacceptable that government officials purposefully confuse people. And don't get me started on the economists. 99% of them are snakes.
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Awesome point
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Great easy to read and understand book that is helpful in this regard. Its short and not full of wonkish economic nonsense.
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Good point. Not everything is on the fed
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CPI is such a big lie!
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