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default for almost everyone who wants equity exposure [...] a zillion people auto-invest in index funds now
Sure things in markets scare the crap out of me. It's the mentality I associate with the the 2008 real estate crisis. I can't connect the dots on how index funds might fail, because it isn't retail that's levered up this time, but it feels like a ticking time bomb.
I used to be all-in on robo-invested index funds ~6 years ago but literally everyone I knew began recommending them so I got out.
Yeah, you're not wrong (I don't think) but it is what it is. This is how people "save" and it's kind of the most reasonable way, right? Aside from btc, and perhaps inclusive of btc for the last few years?
It's a strange and complicated topic, when things become so predictable that all this infra gets built around the assumption of their predictability; gets knitted into the foundation of the world, the way the Catholic church did back in the day.
And eventually a reformation. Although I guess someone already used that metaphor. And then god died, and someone else wrote about that already, too.
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It is the most reasonable way (excluding us weirdos into hard money stuff).
Maybe they've somehow made it a sound system. It's corporations that are levered up now and they are credit worthy so long as they don't starve retail. Corporatocracy is probably a quasi-stable nightmare.
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Good article.
He warned the flood of millennial money into index funds and ETFs was fueling unsustainable valuations and putting the stock market in a precarious position. "Parabolas don't resolve sideways," he said.
Although this:
"People are missing the boat," he added, noting that he expects the best active managers to consistently trounce the market.
Here's my guess: Peter Lynch defines "the best active investors" as "the ones who trounce the market" and therefore the statement is non-falsifiable.
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