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11 sats \ 4 replies \ @g4ala OP 29 Sep 2021 \ parent \ on: Glassnode: The Week Onchain (Week 39, 2021) bitcoin
Although we're only 17 hrs in, I've seen little evidence of any reversal to the current downtrend.
A key indicator that I use for such, is the 'Z' Value which is used in statistics (just one part of my background), but I've found it to be a really good short term direction indicator.
Basically the 'Z' Value needs to cross the 0% line for any reversal of the underlying trend.
It's calculated from 3 other statistical values...
- The last sample from the population list
- The population mean
- The population standard deviation For the population list, I use the CP for any given hour candle in the past 100 hrs, so 100 samples, which is not many, but it seems to be enough for this to work. Today the 'Z' Value started at -1.5% (as of Sep 29 00:00 UTC) and hit -0.26% by 08:00 but has been in decline since then. So, as the spot price gravitates toward the PDCP (as so often is the case) we could see another test of the rising resistance line (100 Day SMA; apx $40.7K). Time will tell, but I'd not be over surprised by that and at every test, any support will be weaker than the last test. Below that, there's a low of $39.5K which was set on Sep 21. I'll post an update tomorrow.
Interesting, thank you. We just printed a nice 2k+ 4h green dildo... not sure if bull trap but we sure seem to have a lot of momentum on the bear side...
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No worries; you're very welcome.
The 'Z' Value crossed the 0% line at 01:00 (UTC) today and topped out at 1.15% at 03:00; yeah!!
So, the next thing I'll be watching for is some local support. The 3 Day SMA is (I.M.H.O) a good local indicator for any continuation to the upside. It's yet to see a OCC (open close cross) but the signs are looking good right now, so long as the spot price remains above the SMA line: $42,330 at this time.
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What tools are you using for price analytics?
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Correction: 100 Day SMA is of right now = $41.4K
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