i feel like I fell for it again,,,just like i did in 2009,,,convinced that the world was going to implode & the usd hyperinflate,,,lost a fortune,,,i was into ZeroHedge at the time and all that,,,turned out to be complete bullshit,,,then bitcoin does its thing in the covid years,,,every twitter personality is talking about hyperinflation and the swift end of the banking system,,,the decline of US power,,,how Biden is destroying america,,,4th turnings,,,western government collapses,,,what if it's all complete bullshit tho?,,,things play out so long u don't even feel them,,,and there is no crisis greater now than than there's been at any other rando time,,,and bitcoin actually thrives in an environment of cooperation and peace?,,,the good thing is i made money going short markets this time,,,but it seems temporary,,,it seems like if u bet against humanity's progress u will always lose big,,,regardless of what the money is,,,unless there's an extinction event but at that point bitcoin and gold are as valuable as bacteria think they are,,,i can't listen anymore to most bitcoin podcasts,,,i can't do the twitter thing,,,i can't help pump the centralized fossil fuel industry,,,i can't do no trad orange pilling unless the narrative is different w/out implied time frames for collapse & disaster,,,i'm not going to dismiss smart people or their ideas anymore just cuz they don't like btc,,,for real tho the disaster stuff needs to go away for good,,,it's bad for ur quality of life,,,and i feel stupid for scaring my own family members into voting a certain way w/ their money,,,i just feel i could of done a better job,,,basically my salesman pitch was a fuckfest of twitter personalities who talk confident get the views go viral and amplify crappy info,,,anyway we gotta do better,,,glad i'm here,,,thx
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150 sats \ 2 replies \ @Undisciplined 27 Sep 2023
We're strongly hardwired to exaggerate downside risks, because they're more relevant to survival than upside potential. The worst economic downturns rarely even amount to a 10% reduction in prosperity. That means people generally retain 90%+ through economic crises.
The kinds of catastrophic scenarios many people forecast have only really happened when small pox ravaged the Americas or when the Black Death devastated Eurasia.
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210 sats \ 1 reply \ @mallardshead 27 Sep 2023
Agreed. And if you study even the hyperinflation events (Moldova, Japan, Argentina, Russia, Weimar, Zimbabwe, Greece, etc), they don't play out like the sub-species of Bitcoin Twitter Austrians like claiming. That group has a habit of scissoring small time frames that fit their narratives and dismiss the decades of context prior to, and especially after the events.
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100 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 27 Sep 2023
I try to take that sort of zoomed out perspective. However bad those events were for the people who had to survive them, pretty much everyone did survive them and society didn't devolve into roving bands of marauders.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @mallardshead 27 Sep 2023
There's a big culture change coming to bitcoin over the next several years. It's not just you, but many are waking up to this and rejecting the dystopian, deathbed, and "suddenly" scenarios. Many of the loudest voices today won't be around tomorrow. This happens every cycle, it's just this cycle we picked up a certain sticky element. I'd like to see that element rekt along with Binance and half the public miners before we push on to the next boss.
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