Blackrock's gameplan \ stacker news ~bitcoin

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7099 sats \ 44 comments \ @Hypnagog 4 Oct 2023 bitcoin

Seems very simple to me.

ETF approved. Billions stream into the ETF.
ETF terms say black rock can decide which fork to follow if/when there is a fork.
Blackrock lobby/spearhead a KYC/Censorship version of bitcoin. Bitcoin forks.
Blackrock choose to keep the btc in the KYC fork, and sell all their billions in coins in the legacy non-kyc chain.
Legacy bitcoin tanks because of the billions being dumped. Media, et. All join the party.
Legacy bitcoin keeps going up, original btc tanks, so people pile on the kyc fork.

I know this has happened I'm the past, but it never happened with the resources of BLACKROCK to back the fork. That and their institutional pull in capital markets.

Also, with billions I'm legacy btc, Blackrock can dampen price for years, this doesnt have to happen quickly.

Also note: Blackrock owns MicroStrategy. Blackrock owns major miners.

Please tell me how I am wrong, because no one else seems to be worried here.

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1568 sats \ 2 replies \ @Ribbit 5 Oct 2023

If Bitcoin can't survive Blackrock, it can't survive any other large person or group coordinating a pump and dump fork.

Better to find out now.

It was built to withstand STATE level attacks like this, let alone a company.

More specifically, Blackrocks fork clause is intended to be upfront with ]nvestors, not a game plan for taking over bitcoin.

It's like asking, what happens if the group of whales and institutions who own btc now, coordinate to fork bitcoin and bring on a kyc version ?

Why don't or can't states ? If they did what would we do. Same thing for your BR scenario

When people talk about a BR etf increasing bitcoins price, they mean because it will increase demand and give legalized access to boomers who can't figure out a wallet. Large family holdings and institutions and wealth funds can have exposure too.

They do not mean blackrock will be focusing all of its resources on bitcoin. It's just another industry sector to these financial types. It's not ideological. They are Number go up bro's.

1 sat \ 1 reply \ @Hypnagog OP 5 Oct 2023

I disagree. Blackrock has definitely been an ideological entity (e.g. esg) before. Also, bitcoinay be seen as a thing that could weaken its other (larger) investments, such as investments in traditional banks. If spending 5 billion saves your 600billion stake, does it make sense to spend it?

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Ribbit 5 Oct 2023

Perhaps, Esg is just cover for technocracy, but the reason they have to do that is because they are running out of money.

612 sats \ 1 reply \ @Athena_Alpha 4 Oct 2023

Let's answer your question with a question...

What would be Blackrocks motivation for putting billions of their clients capital at risk with this evil plot?

Besides the obvious "the gov makes them do it" which is a possibility, there doesn't seem to be a logical reason for them to do this. It'd be risky (as it might fail) and even if it doesn't, how would holding KYCBTC be any more profitable for them than the BTC they already hold? Even if it works perfectly and all their BTC == all their new KYCBTC there's still the huge cost of enacting the plan.

Also you said yourself they "sell all their billions in coins in the legacy non-kyc chain", wouldn't that be selling into a huge bear market losing them billions? Why would they do that? Even if their evil plan works perfectly and BTC becomes 100% KYCBTC... how does that make them more money? Pretty sure that's all they really care about.

This we think is one of the best aspects of Bitcoin, it's absolutely freedom tech and has amazingly fair and honest aspects to it (you shall not counterfeit, you shall not inflate, you shall not double spend etc) but all that honesty is brutally enforced by game theory and the greed of the masses. It's pure genius.

1 sat \ 0 replies \ @Hypnagog OP 5 Oct 2023

What is blackrocks justification for pushing ESG and other ideological agendas?

Also, blackrock has a TON of investments in tradfi: all major banks for example. They definitely have a financial incentive to take down bitcoin if btc is a threat.

55 sats \ 3 replies \ @anon 5 Oct 2023

After the fork Everyone who owns BTC will still own it and own the same amount of coins on the new KYC network. Personally I would then sell the KYC coins and buy more BTC. I imagine most Bitcoiners in the world would do the same thing. The only people who would want the Blackrock coin would be Blackrock.

45 sats \ 0 replies \ @Hypnagog OP 5 Oct 2023

Yep, so its you ans the others who value freedom vs the establishment and big money. Would be a hell of a test of will. Do you follow a dumped btc, or an appreciating fork? How many will choose values over $$$?

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @BBitcoinUSA 6 Oct 2023

I welcome them to proceed with the spot Bitcoin ETF, it will only help the cause overall.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @BBitcoinUSA 6 Oct 2023

This is the key. Even if CNBC tries to call the “New BTC” “Bitcoin” - it would quickly become obvious how shamelessly dishonest they were being

379 sats \ 2 replies \ @TwoLargePizzas 4 Oct 2023

Here's a few counter points:

Bitcoin is worldwide. Nobody in China, Russia, etc gives two shits about BlackRock ETF.
Most of the Bitcoin is already held by long term holders. I doubt they'll sell to Larry.
Ownership is not control. It's irrelevant how much MicroStrategy stock they own.
BlackRock can say they decide which fork all they want. It doesn't change the reality that the global market and the global nodes decide the fork.

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @Hypnagog OP 5 Oct 2023

Take btc and one fork.

Assume blackrock has sufficient capital and pull to undermine btcs price significantly

Say you see btc price going down to $500 and the fork going up to $200,000 . how many people will hold the dropping btc?

I get that the current bitcoiners are very ideological and value based. But how many will hold fast in that scenario?

Blackrock is 100% global. Check what they own and what reach they have globally .

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @TwoLargePizzas 6 Oct 2023

First of all, you can imagine any scenario you want. I can imagine a zombie apocalypse but that doesn't change the likelihood of it actually happening.

But let's assume for a moment your scenario came true. In that scenario, a hard fork created by BlackRock, whatever amount of BTC you hold on one chain you'll also hold on the other chain.

In other words, if you're holding 1 BTC you'll now also hold 1 BLKBTC. And somehow they've magically manipulated the price up of BLKBTC to $200k and the price down of BTC to $500.

What is a rational market actor incentivized to do?

Are they going to sell $500 worth of BTC and put it into BLKBTC? This trade makes no sense for most people.
Will they sell their BLKBTC and buy more BTC? This trade makes a lot of sense to current ideological Bitcoiners. Some people would definitely do that, myself included.
Most people will do something in between these two extremes.

Again, you can imagine any number of variations of these scenarios but figuring out how they'd actually play out in reality is very different.

210 sats \ 0 replies \ @DeltaClimbs 4 Oct 2023

I have a different possible game plan I laid out on Nostr: https://nostr.band/note1uxpl2nt6jvvtn8r0zsc3fafgzvjt7vd5qngg6f74cmjg0kyllpgqgecpst

Shortly before my Twitter account was obliterated by a fiat egomaniac, I wrote a thread laying out my predictions for how a bitcoin ETF could underpin a fiat 2.0 that purports to be atop (fractionally reserved) bitcoin. Here is the 12 part synopsis:

Operation Chokepoint 2.0 made Utah ILCs and other banks of the style that underpin lending startups unwilling to touch "crypto".
Before that, it would have been plausible to start a business that originates fiat loans for the purchase of bitcoin (sort of a layaway/mortgage style).
If the bitcoin were held in a 2-of-2 deadlocked arrangement between customer and lending company, it ensures company cannot rehypothecate, and ensures the loan is at least eventually paid off.
It is a great business, and as the calculator on https://faucet21.com shows, it allows people to end up with a lot more bitcoin.
As companies like Swan, Unchained, Strike, and River with mediocre business models chase greater revenue for investors, those companies and others will build lending tools like this, but for a bitcoin ETF rather than bitcoin.
In this way, they can gain 10x higher fees on 10x the investment capital (note, this is effectively the money printer getting connected directly into bitcoin purchasing) all the while triggering NGU. I anticipate the ETF will actually be 1:1 for a long time because there is an end game.
It will become the standard for noobs to get in this way and the bitcoin price will rise into the millions -- most influencers, podcasts, and conferences will dismiss the problems due to NGU.
Then when the bitcoin ETF rivals the pension or housing bubbles, perhaps even just low tens of trillions, the 6102 will be announced, and the ETF will turn into fiat 2.0.
There will be a conversion window turning all fiat 1.0 into fiat 2.0 (maybe all tied to a central federal reserve account that individuals have access to), so there is your first large chunk of devaluation.
There will be top down attempts to force all contracts to be denominated in fiat 2.0 -- large companies will pay salaries in it, BlackRock will rent houses in it, and fiat cash will be eliminated for total surveillance.
If it does not fall within days to weeks, fiat 2.0 will fail shortly thereafter as it trades at a significant discount on the international markets due to its market estimated amount of underlying bitcoin combined with huge counterparty risk and lack of auditability.
Nations that minimize the violence and theft they carry out in this tumultuous time may emerge as new global Schelling points and private companies will step in to further stabilize these regions by providing voluntary rule of law and insurance services.

Many will be rekt, bitcoin will be fine

Tick tock, next block

10 sats \ 0 replies \ @nuII 5 Oct 2023

maybe it seems so simple to you because you so simple

anyway, people are reading way too much into the fine print of the ETF regarding forks. the fine print must be there for the event of a fork. imagine having a bitcoin ETF with no disclosures about how the ETF would handle a fork. like another user said, if bitcoin can't survive the first three steps of your very simple plan you see unfolding then fuck bitcoin.

also note: blackrock owns shares of microstrategy and major miners because they manage assets for their customers, who own either these companies specifically or ETFs or other index funds that hold/buy these assets on behalf of their customers.

10 sats \ 11 replies \ @byzantine 4 Oct 2023

won't happen. they will be sued into bankruptcy because ultimately their fork will not triumph and if it does then it means humanity rejected a freedom fork.

31 sats \ 1 reply \ @SpaceHodler 5 Oct 2023

The OP also missed one fact: BlackRock is poor.

In the same way I'm wealthier than Warren Buffet, because I have some sats and he doesn't. That wealth is 'unrealized', because of the current, suppressed price of my sats.

BlackRock may have some BTC, but most of it is held by holders who got in before BlackRock. Their ETF is going to pump the price and the more it goes up, the more the long time bitcoiners' wealth will be 'realized' and the wealthier (in realized terms) they will be in relation to BR.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Hypnagog OP 5 Oct 2023

Blackrock etf will bring in NEW (non value based) capital money who will only care about returns and aml compliance.

22 sats \ 4 replies \ @Hypnagog OP 4 Oct 2023

By? Their investors?

The terms say blackrock can choose which fork to support. Its there in black and white

30 sats \ 3 replies \ @byzantine 4 Oct 2023

then their investors will sell their blackrock etf shares meaning less shares on the market and btc must be redeemed from the trust to their "prime brokers"

prime brokers buy freedom bitcoin from redeemed shares pumping freedom btc

shorts sell blackrock etf short as well

etf collapses and shorts use proceeds to buy freedom btc in the market

competing etf eclipses blackrock with freedom btc in it

0 sats \ 2 replies \ @Hypnagog OP 4 Oct 2023

Why would institutional investors (banks , pension funds, etc etc) sell their shares if blackrock is following the KYC (read: can't be used for evil evil money laundering and all the darkweb things)? We are talking about capital to orders of magnitude much higher than the last blocksize wars here....

Also a very different clientele. You think etf investors will care about freedom?

415 sats \ 1 reply \ @byzantine 4 Oct 2023

yes i do. they want a price proxy for btc. and freedom btc will be worth more in the long term than non freedom btc

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Hypnagog OP 5 Oct 2023

Its all theoretical. However I do think the bitcoin community is underestimating the reach of institutional power.

0 sats \ 3 replies \ @Hypnagog OP 4 Oct 2023

"Humanity rejected a freedom fork"

Remember that blackrock benefits from mainstream media, institutional investors, all the imfluemce they have by the stock they own, billions in capital....

Humanity may not have much of a voice here..

881 sats \ 2 replies \ @byzantine 4 Oct 2023

well i guess we will see. you are explaining a version of the fork wars that failed before

-biggest miners choose new fork -sell all old stash -pump up new fork metrics -spam attack old fork -ultimately are forced to abandon new fork since market chooses freedom

***remember the market is global ***

21 sats \ 1 reply \ @Hypnagog OP 4 Oct 2023

Did miners have billions of capital in btc then? Who know how big a blackrock etf could get.

I guess time will tell.

63 sats \ 0 replies \ @byzantine 4 Oct 2023

it is relative. bitmain had a massive % of the market but the market cap was much smaller then.

10 sats \ 2 replies \ @TheBTCManual 5 Oct 2023

I don't see how owning a lot of Bitcoin gives you more say over the network this isn't proof of stake, If that's just to have X allocation, with a fork seems like a waste of money, you could just fork it right now and give yourself whatever allocation you want.

If you fork based on the current chain state, you give a lot of people an allocation in a coin/chain that the US government might not want to enrich, why would Blackrock want to give El Salvador, Bhutan, the Lazaras group and all other so called unfriendlies more funds? Just like Blackrock can dump so-called legacy Bitcoin, others will equally dump their BR-Bitcoin

If you fork you can't just port the lindy effect of all the businesses, developers, wallets, software, miners, protocols and users over to your network, you can fork but you're still bootstrapping a brand new network, and good luck to them, many have tried and failed

While blackrock can try, they about making money and reducing risk, just buying their KYC bitcoin and shutting the fuck up is going to get them further in terms of income and AUM growth than what you're proposing, so if you believe blackrock turns from being incentivised by money to becoming some idiolog that just wants to waste money failing to take over a network, thats a long shot in my opinion.

If you're worried about these things you don't have the conviction in the Bitcoin thesis and incentive structure and it might be best to sell down your stack to a point where you would no longer be worried.

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @Hypnagog OP 5 Oct 2023

I am only bringing this up because the bitcoin community really doesnt appear to acknowledge this risk. Heck many bitcoiners are actually excited about the bitcoin etf.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @TheBTCManual 5 Oct 2023

I am always keen to explore possible threats, I don't see why we shouldn't embrace every attack on bitcoin, if we don't we're all just larping, this thing needs to be stress tested.

I just don;t see this one as a biggy, I think more bitcoin baulking under the weight of too many users adopting it is a bigger issue and focus needs to be on that, if BR takes some on-chain strain away it kinda buys time for things to develop, either way up or down I am here for the ride

There's a lot of larps in bitcoin these are bag pumpers who can't wait for the fiat gains and hope black rock bid them out of their position and good for them.

10 sats \ 1 reply \ @2bithits 5 Oct 2023

This plan would test bitcoiners. We would really see who's not selling.

Note: They don't have to fork BTC to create their KYC walled garden.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Hypnagog OP 5 Oct 2023

Would test us... Go for $$$ or values... Tough choice.

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @pow 5 Oct 2023

What if Blackrock decide to support an existing fork (BCH) instead. And use the media to manipulate people into thinking BCH is Bitcoin.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Hypnagog OP 5 Oct 2023

They haven't ?

Bitcoim has much better fundamentals. Better boat to hijack?

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @BBitcoinUSA 5 Oct 2023

I agree one of their main interests in the whole thing is controlling/manipulating the market for bitcoin

My dumb question is - If/when they fork, which fork is referred to as “Bitcoin” and which is referred to as “Bitcoin XYZ” ? If 51% reject the fork, then the 51% is obviously the original Bitcoin, but could the media somehow in theory manipulate the public into labeling the new fork as “Bitcoin” ? That would be infuriating but could cause some problems, obviously I don’t know if I even know what I’m talking about here.

63 sats \ 0 replies \ @Hypnagog OP 5 Oct 2023

My thought is that most people will follow the chain that goes up in value the most. People follow the $$$.

At least that's the risk here.

For your question: my understanding is that the "version" that has 50.1% of nodes will continue to be the original bitcoin, and the offshoot will be the fork. Happy to be corrected on this.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @lunanto 5 Oct 2023

When Blackrock Bitcoin ETF comes through, it will be a whole change for traditional finance

0 sats \ 2 replies \ @bataroot 5 Oct 2023

They can choose the fork they want. If it is a fork for more financial slavery, good luck to them and their investors.

I know which side I will be on. Everything away from bitcoin as a tool for the separation of money and state is misdirection.

5 sats \ 1 reply \ @Hypnagog OP 5 Oct 2023

I get you and am of the same opinion. However look at the sway the powers that be can have on opinion and financial markets . this is not an adversary we should easily dismiss.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @bataroot 5 Oct 2023

We are not going to vote or influence our way out of this rotten system.

I chose to focus on a parallel system and do the minimum required in the current obsolete one. I don't dismiss our adversaries, I just do not spend too much time thinking about them and their end of cycle strategies.

Let's defund that system every possible way, by paying less or no taxes, by never investing in their scheme, by acting like sovereign individuals and maybe influence people around us...

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @SpaceHodler 5 Oct 2023

But why would their forked shitcoin have any value? And why would they sell BTC, the most precious asset on earth? History tells us shitcoins don't retain value.

Just because a shitcoin is held by BlackRock doesn't make it valuable.

The value is in Bitcoin's value proposition.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Hypnagog OP 5 Oct 2023

Because manipulating the price is easily done if you control a large stake of the capital.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @jgbtc 5 Oct 2023

I worry about this occasionally (#271934 for example). Something like this is bound to happen eventually. There will be fud of biblical proportions, but I think pleb node runners will prevail.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @newnym 4 Oct 2023

So far this is the most credible attack scenario I've seen involving the Blackrock ETF.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Hypnagog OP 4 Oct 2023

*Point 6 should say kyc bitcoin goes up, legacy tanks