This man plays 4-D chess!

He had to know that the fake and bot accounts had to be way higher than 5% of the 229M "monetizable" users.

After signalling the ax for staff and the end of non-transparent censorship, a bunch of employees have left or have already started job hunting. He didn't have to spend a dime and half his problem with Twitter is already being resolved!

So now the market tanks, Musk has this 5% issue (which would likely end up interesting to the SEC, since the estimate was made after the buyout deal was reached) and uses it to get a great discount on the price, ... or maybe walks away and lets Twitter crumble in the vacuum left after buyout collapse, and he gets to put in a stink bid down the road.

Yes, this is standard "good negotiating" tactics: Get the other party to commit in principle, then negotiate price.

He's both backed the board into a corner and started clearing out dissenters simultaneously, therefore they are now under pressure to sell at any reasonable price. Given the market downturn - and continued weakness going forward - this provides a movable discount he can press.

Furthermore, there is no reason why he can't claim that those "5%" bots should equal a 10-20% discount, since those bots by their nature have an outsized impact on the platform (ie. real people may only post 1 tweet per week, however most bots are voracious posters)

Frankly speaking, the "best" outcome would be for us to not have a single twitter at all, but instead transform twitter into just-another-mastodon-node


Twitter has no incentive to tear down their walls, so I don't think that will happen without new owners wanting that strategy and willing to endure turning that lumbering ship.

I check in occasionally to see how nostr is progressing. I suspect that'll be what supplants Twitter, but no idea how long that might take. Network effects are strong.