Would be good if i could see increments for each percentage point, but ill just take 5% if its easily available.
2,000 sats paid
yoshi's bounties
First, let's define the what a 5% move means.
If you mean a sudden jump across the top 10 exchanges that isn't necessarily sustained for any amount of time, then it's possible to calculate it, because we know the order books. A coordinated sudden buy can make it happen.
But, I'm pretty sure you don't mean that. You mean a jump that stays for at least 10 minutes or more. That's really hard to judge because we don't know the intentions of the traders and more importantly their bots who react to the initial price jump. Do they mostly take a quick profit and dump a whole bunch of bitcoin, or do they take off their bitcoin from the books to ensure they don't sell too low while a rally is happening.
Also, there are two important factors to consider:
  1. How how many exchanges need to display a certain price level for the others to catch up. I assume if the top 2-3 exchanges had a higher price, the rest will follow suit. So it's probable that you don't even need to buy the bitcoin available on 10 or more exchanges, just 2-3.
  2. The amount required will change over time. It literally changes somewhat ever second. So there is no universal answer to this question.
But regardless, here is a very rought estimate:
For a sudden unsustained jump, on Binance we currently have 700 BTC that need to be bought off to reach 5%+ price. We need to at least double this to make a move on multiple exchanges. So, I would say you need enough cash to buy 1500 BTC, which is like in the range of USD 40M+.
For a more sustained increase, I would say you need to keep buying all incoming offers below the 5%+ price for as long as you want to maintain the price, which could be another USD 4M+ per minute. At one point you could stop buying and the price will hold. If you needed to do it for 15 minutes, you would need a total of USD 100M+.
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Ok, lets learn how order book works. Let's say there are only Binance & Coinbase in this scenario.
Current price on Binance & Coinbase : 28k The small detail (like 28032 or 28010 etc) always exist, but for the sake of simplicity lets just skip this part
Here's an example of BUY orderbook on Binance BTC/USDT SPOT market :
at 27930 there are $30000 buy order at 27860 there are $1000 buy order at 27790 there are $700 buy order at 27720 there are $8000 buy order at 27660 there are $900 buy order ..... at 26600 there are $1M buy order The number (price&demand) will vary until all the way down.
Here's an example of SELL orderbook on Binance BTC/USDT SPOT market :
at 28070 there are $30000 sell order at 28140 there are $3000 sell order at 28210 there are $400 sell order at 28280 there are $1000 sell order at 28350 there are $2000 sell order ...... at 29400 there are $2M sell order The number (price&supply) will vary until all the way up.
In order for the price to move up 1% (28k to 28280) there has/have to be a market taker that take the order equal to $34.4k ($30k+$3k+$400+$1k)..... but the price will only pump for a very short period of time.
In order for the price to stay at least on that price range, there has to be at least equal amount of buy pressure & sell pressure at the same time.
If sell pressure > buy pressure then price will go down but you can expect a higher lower high since people will FOMO to a pump. The price can go higher if buy pressure > sell pressure

Then wtf does Coinbase has to do with this???

Well the pump only happen on Binance & i only calculated a 1% price pump, for a 5% pump more money needs to be thrown at the instant buy button.
Extra : when price on Binance > Coinbase, traders on Coinbase will see BTC/USDT as underpriced therefore will instantly buy on Coinbase. The trader on Binance also sees their BTC/USDT price as overpriced therefore BTC holder there will immediately sell their BTC for "premium". This is the known as arbitrage trading "You buy where price is low & you sell where price is high"
I only calculate 1% pump, for 5% pump to happen you need to count all the sell pressure between the current market (28k) & your desired price (29.4k). Let's say the total sell pressure in between those price are 3/7/ or whatever million dollars then that is what number you are looking for
The price could also go crazy when sell order is being removed by the market makers.
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What do you mean? In Bitcoin? It depends on the liquidity of the exchange you are using. Movements and price of each exchange are different. If you look at the depth charts, you can see the sum of all orders until certain prices. You can calculate the price + 5% and put the mouse cursor over that price and it usually gives you the sum volume needed until that price. This interface may depend on the exchange, but most exchanges have similar features. However keep in mind that the orders are constantly changing and specially those close to the price.
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50M net buy moves the price around 1k at current prices and volume. Scientifically proven.
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There is no direct way to see the total buy volume required for a 5% move in a stock. However, there are a few ways to estimate it.
One way is to look at the average daily trading volume (ADTV) for the stock. If the ADTV is 1 million shares, then you would need to buy 50,000 shares to move the price by 5%.
Another way to estimate the total buy volume required for a 5% move is to look at the stock's float. The float is the number of shares that are publicly traded. If the float is 10 million shares, then you would need to buy 500,000 shares to move the price by 5%.
It's important to note that these are just estimates. The actual amount of buy volume required to move a stock by 5% will vary depending on a number of factors, such as the stock's liquidity and the overall market conditions.
Here are some additional things to keep in mind when estimating the total buy volume required for a 5% move:
  • The stock's liquidity: More liquid stocks are easier to trade, so it will take less buy volume to move the price by a given amount.
  • The overall market conditions: When the market is volatile, it will take more buy volume to move a stock's price by a given amount.
  • The stock's price: More expensive stocks will require more buy volume to move their price by a given percentage.
If you're serious about trading stocks, it's important to understand how to estimate the total buy volume required for a given price move. This information can help you make more informed trading decisions.
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