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Hard money has already won.
10year treasury yields have ripped up to 5% with national debt quickly passing $34trillion. The treasury has raised $650 billion in federal debt THIS MONTH The debt cap was removed this summer, there is NO LIMIT on what the treasury can try and raise. Janet Yellen was lying on TV about Debt-to-GDP (yes, it is 122%) last week Interest payments on US debt have passed $1 trillion/year. More than any other single liability except social security (soon). Long dated bonds down 50% in the last 3 years
Banks are way underwater, holding the treasury notes. Bank of America alone carries 135bn in losses. BTFP (Bank Term Funding Program- 2020s version of TARP) is up to 108bn. The Fed is 110bn underwater in remittances to treasury, mostly losses from reverse repo program. All of this is inflation directly to banks to keep them afloat.
Paul Krugman says "The war on Inflation (except for food, energy, shelter, and used cars) is over" Excess savings for consumers is down to 200billion. Bottom 80% of households have 0 savings.
The treasury, congress, the federal reserve, are all at odds with each other. Each focused on their metrics not realizing they are playing Tug-o-War with each other.
The Fed cannot hang on much longer, and they will turn the money printers back on in 2024 going into the election. Depending on the political environment, we might even get stimulus checks!
The SEC is getting pummeled in the courts, and they can't hold back an ETF much longer. Larry Fink is calling Bitcoin "Flight to quality" on TV Fidelity just released it's "Bitcoin First" paper: https://www.fidelitydigitalassets.com/sites/default/files/documents/bitcoin-first.pdf Wall Street's money managers are about to convert an entire generation of boomer goldbugs into Bitcoin ETF buyers.
Oh yeah, and the halvening is is 6 months. Hang on tight, we are going to the moon this time.