That's definitely part of it. Human psychology, fear of missing out are common drivers of price appreciation in markets.

Bitcoin's fiat price historically has correlated to a four year cycle around the halving. Where we have an accumulation phase (this is where long term holders such as you and me) are stacking sats, dcaing and gobbling up as much supply as possible (currently long term hodlers are buying more than the daily supply issuance). However, there is little interest from new participants and the price during this time is typically driven by short term holders (traders) as they buy and sell the ebbs and flows, news, technicals. However, after a long period of accumulation a supply squeeze begins to build and there are not enough available coins on the market to satisfy purchase demand. This forces price to creep up but it typically goes up slowly over many months as at each new significant price level it attains you have short term holders who sell to take a profit (recently this was 35k). As these price levels begin to get higher and higher, traders are less willing to sell for small profits as they think upward momentum will continue and are holding out for bigger gains, meanwhile long term holders are still stacking and hodling. Eventually the upward price momentum gets the attention of a broader set of market participants, whether that be retail investors, or hedge funds, or more traders who see Bitcoin as having momentum and a good way to make some money. This momentum tends to build into the halving (with peaks and valleys of course). The halving exacerbates the supply squeeze because there is now half the number of new coins coming to market and long term holders are all already buying them up so price needs to rise to meet this demand unless some long term holders or very large short term holders decide to consistently sell coins. Eventually the supply squeeze gets drastic as everyone is expecting much higher prices and no one wants to sell, this brings more and more capital and participants to the market chasing fewer fewer available coins because very few people are selling. This usually causes a parabolic move upwards. Eventually we reach a peak where price is high enough that new capital coming in (say you are buying 100 dollars a week in bitcoin, if price goes up 4x you would need to now need to buy 400 a week to acquire the same amount of bitcoin) isn't significant enough to maintain the high price and long and short term holders are now selling more coins than before because they are in profit. Once the price starts to go down, they often sell even more as they want to lock in profit before a crash. This typically creates a self fulfilling prophecy as people trying to get out ahead of a crash inevitably create the crash. It takes awhile for all the excess, leverage to wash out and long term holders keep buying as the price goes down. As the price is dropping though many traders are trying to short bitcoin now to profit from the crash, which creates more supply for sale on the market. Only when the shorts and sellers are all washed out do we reach a bottom and can start the accumulation phase. (recently happened around 15k)

Now the recent parabolic top and subsequent sell off was also fueled by the excess money creation by the fed during covid and those new dollars chasing return. It could be argued a couple ways. This may have caused bitcoin to go higher than it would have gone otherwise or maybe since speculation was totally rampant with the free money at that time people were so far out on the risk curve (buying memecoins, nfts, memestocks etc) that Bitcoin actually underperformed what it would have done if those extremely speculative instruments didn't get a flood of capital. Who knows?

Anyways, as we work our way through the current accumulation phase (don't assume it is over, the global economy is hanging by a thread, we could see Bitcoin pull back aggressively if something blows up) the supply squeeze is building and we are working our way to the bull market and eventual top. Whether it will be a parabolic blow off top or just a big rally to a new ATH, who knows? And whether it is the last 4 year cycle and we have less volatility going forward as big players enter the space, also who knows?

The way I look at it is Bitcoin is a savings technology. The best I have ever seen. And as long as my thesis on Bitcoin hasn't changed or something drastic hasn't happened to the protocol or adoption hasn't ceased due to extremely excessive regulation, then I will continue converting my bad fiat money into Bitcoin every day. I am human so I am interested and entertained by price movements but ultimately I try to focus on how many sats I am acquiring and meet my sat goals regardless of price. One day I hope to sell some sats but not for fiat, for goods and services I require and the rest I hope to pass onto my kids. If I really need fiat, I can use my Bitcoin as collateral and get a fiat loan.

Just my perspective.

Happy stacking. GR