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The timeline matters because you are bringing up dead UTXOs as an argument.
I ask the question again though... How does SN making a payment today help chainanalyzoors find his identity though? I don't understand.
His utxos weren't always dead. We know for example that SN received and sent to Mike Hearn from 1PhUXucRd8FzQved2KGK3g1eKfTHPGjgFu - even knowing the real name/ID of his counterparty and knowing with 100% certainty that SN owned the address, we are still clueless about who SN is. How would Satoshi be any more (or less) private if he had coinjoined the balance of the address before paying Mike Hearn, and received from Mike using a paynym rather than doxxing his address?
Perfect pseudonymity. If today SN sent more bitcoin from 1PhUXucRd8FzQved2KGK3g1eKfTHPGjgFu to you or me, we would still have no idea who he is. The timeline is irrelevant.
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Here's the trade-off. If you make one mistake all your UTXO history is linked. That may be ok for some, it may not be for others. Bottom line is it is a tool. I will never say everyone should always coin-join. That's the point of this discussion. The trade-offs. This isn't an absolute issue. Bitcoin is not private by default. Huge myth that I will not perpetrate.
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I guess that's where we have a different vision. I think Bitcoin is 100% private by default (proven by the SN case study), and some users have chosen to opt in to bad privacy practices either out of ignorance or convenience. If you don't opt in to losing your privacy, then you stay private like SN did.
Anyways I appreciate the dialogue, good luck with your privacy quest! My final comment on the topic is just that VC backed coinjoins are absurdly expensive. If you must coinjoin for some weird inexplicable reason, try joinmarket.
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