Recently, we shared our predictions about what economic bubbles were likely to pop in the near future. Now, for the other difficult question.
When are we likely to see this current bubble burst?
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305 sats \ 4 replies \ @Public_N_M_E 6 Nov 2023
Crypto (minus BTC) what I mean is ETH etc there's so many scams, rug pulls, and generic BS surrounding so many coins and tokens. It's just waiting for people to wake up and realise that a lot of them have zero use case.
The previous bull and the current bear is what made me a BTC maxi. I have small holdings of other coins/tokens, but those are what I think of as playing roulette, if I win, it gets converted to BTC and moved to storage. They're not serious investments they're gambling and playing.
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21 sats \ 3 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 6 Nov 2023
I don't pay much attention to the altcoins. I only own small amounts of a few tokens that are used by sites I would use anyway: Minds, Odysee, Presearch, etc.
Is there enough market cap and contagion potential for cryptos to trigger a financial crash? I guess we saw signs of that last year.
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305 sats \ 2 replies \ @Public_N_M_E 6 Nov 2023
Perhaps not directly, but as you eluded to we saw a bit of it last year and (was it the year before). When FTX collapsed it wasn't just crypto that had massive sell offs to cover, but stocks and commodities, same with the collapse of Terra. Wherever there's been an issue, the financial market as a whole takes a hit whilst people cover their losses where they can. As mentioned with FTX the exposure some HFs had caused them to sell other assets to balance their sheets. Everything is interwoven I guess, and I wonder how much institutional exposure there is to the wider crypto market.
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21 sats \ 1 reply \ @Undisciplined OP 6 Nov 2023
I couldn't remember and didn't want to check.
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305 sats \ 0 replies \ @Public_N_M_E 6 Nov 2023
Haha me neither but I remember the event very clearly. Was all over the crypto news spaces, it was May ish 2022 I think?
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305 sats \ 4 replies \ @grayruby 6 Nov 2023
Q1 2024
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20 sats \ 3 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 6 Nov 2023
I made this post partly out of laziness, but also because my mom was asking me what I thought about it. She had read something about how "everyone" is expecting a recession in the spring. My first thought was that if that's true, we're going to get a recession before then. My second thought was that we've been in a recession for a while and they keep changing definitions and fixing the metrics.
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305 sats \ 2 replies \ @grayruby 6 Nov 2023
Food for thought: Did we ever get out of the recession of 2008 or did we just paper over consistently declining real GDP (if calculated correctly with real inflation numbers) for the past 15 years?
Caveat- I am sure there were positive quarters and maybe even years.
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50 sats \ 1 reply \ @Undisciplined OP 6 Nov 2023
Some people like to differentiate between depressions and recessions, even though historically they're used pretty interchangeably.
If you think of a depression as a prolonged period of reduced standard of living (I think that's how Doug Casey puts it), then it might be reasonable to think of us being almost 16 years into a depression. That's basically how we talk about the Great Depression, which had several years of high, but fleeting, GDP growth.
Recessions tie more into business cycle theory (in my mind, at least) and refer to the undoing of resource misallocations. I think it's fair to say that the later Obama years into the early Trump years were a new bubble that burst at the start of Covid. That's actually where I date the start of this recession. They often end up being back dated, but not by that much.
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305 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby 6 Nov 2023
Agree. I think that is a better way of looking at it. Maybe even just stagnation. Money supply is consistently growing but it isn't flowing into increased production because the debt burden is so significant you need more and more capital injection to move the productivity needle.
People also get fat and happy, think they are rich as asset prices inflate, and don't work as hard which impairs the productivity side of things. (not that I am faulting people for this natural human reaction. I am one of them. Had a bunch of valuable assets that I was able to sell or leverage that allowed me to stop working 60-70 hours a week and to pretty much just work when I want)
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189 sats \ 3 replies \ @antic 6 Nov 2023
Which bubble? housing, stocks, global trade, peace?
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0 sats \ 2 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 6 Nov 2023
Whichever one you think is going to pop first.
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305 sats \ 1 reply \ @antic 6 Nov 2023
arguably:
- the housing bubble is in the middle of the pop
- global trade is in flux. I don't buy the Zeihan arguments entirely, but he's not entirely wrong about trade...
- the peace bubble has been popping for a while
- US stocks have been in a recession since Jan 2022
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10 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 6 Nov 2023
I think we've moved beyond predictions and are in the realm of "postdictions", as well.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @anon 6 Nov 2023
spam
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