Yup, OpenAI's future as a relevant institution is over. Maybe they'll turn into a quasi-think tank that writes papers that a handful of people read; and go on various media hand-wringing tours. That's now the ceiling of their aspirations, imo.

Maybe they go back to their roots of open openAI. Create incredible research, let the public try technologically impressive products and let all kinds of big corporations and Linux/FOSS build ontop of it

That's the most optimistic scenario for me.

I think OpenAI would still ride on the wave of first move advantage for a couple of years. At least, in the education fraternity in my country, everyone is wringing their hands whether or not to get the paid ChatGPT 4 so that they can customise their images with the help of Dall-E to enhance teaching and learning. Hardly anyone talks about Google Bard; Microsoft Bing is not even in our national consciousness