@nemo posted a good article a few days ago (puh, he didn't delete that one, lol).
Good summary (quoted from the article) of why I think prediction markets could be nice:
The problem is that banging on buttons has almost no cost. So an expert’s career is based on setting up a Twitter account and subtle marketing about what correct predictions one has. Even a few incorrect predictions are easy to talk down and thus people like Krugman still have a chance to make predictions. Paradoxically, then, it’s more interesting whether their prediction produces a clickbait article, and more valuable the amount of predictions that can be made into long articles for which the journalist is paid by character count, than their reliability.
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