228 sats \ 2 replies \ @_stacktoshi 30 Nov 2023 \ on: Cycles and inevitability bitcoin
The inevitability of another ATH bubble or just a general leveling up once some form of it pops troubles me for several reasons:
- Operation Chokepoint 2.0: who's going to want to jump through extra hoops to "correctly" hold this asset? If the feds are coming down hard on "crypto", that might bleed into the SEC's actions and kiss both of those avenues for a mainstream pump goodbye.
- Why isn't this "likelihood" priced in now? Shouldn't we be closer to the ATH right now given inflation expectations?
- My speculation doesn't have a great track record, and neither does that of many economic doomers. One thing that's throwing a wrench into my economic projections is just the exponential productivity potential of AI. If that ends up solving many of our geopolitical problems and erasing debt, then perhaps bitcoin and other hard assets become less desirable.
- Who's selling into the bubble and how much are they selling? When are they getting back in? Seems like a very short-sighted plan, but some people deserve a little profit taking given the effects of all the many fiat shenanigans over the years. If bankers all lead a comfortable lifestyle, why shouldn't I? Plus, parting with a tiny bit of bitcoin and that getting into the right (diamond) hands might end up sparking something really big.
All of this is to just say, just take every prediction you've heard about the halving and 2024 in general with a grain of salt, fellow humble plebs.
Seems like a very short-sighted plan, but some people deserve a little profit taking given the effects of all the many fiat shenanigans over the years. I
I am firmly against moral grandstanding against people using their money like ... money. If you want to spend some dough to improve your circumstances, do it. That's what it's for.
Operation Chokepoint 2.0: who's going to want to jump through extra hoops to "correctly" hold this asset? If the feds are coming down hard on "crypto", that might bleed into the SEC's actions and kiss both of those avenues for a mainstream pump goodbye.
Meaning: this is a thing that could get in the way of the next cycle playing out like most of us expect?
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Correct. If the chokehold ramps up, then there will just be fewer bidders for new and existing bitcoin.
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