Generational Theories \ stacker news ~econ

1131 sats \ 10 comments \ @Undisciplined 6 Dec 2023 econ

I was watching a video about "The Curse of the Eighth Decade", which supposedly prevents Israel from ever lasting more than 80 years. It was motivated by a generational dynamic: the founders care deeply about their project, their kids care about maintaining it, but their grandkids are kind of over it.

It reminded me of Strauss-Howe Generational Theory that seems to be growing in popularity: Hard times create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men, weak men create hard times.

I'm fairly skeptical of these types of theories (if they even rise to the level of theories), but I do find them interesting to think and talk about.

Are there any generational theories you find particularly insightful or useful?

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681 sats \ 3 replies \ @tomlaies 6 Dec 2023

I think these generational theories are oversimplified.

Real generations don't even exist. Babies get born every year. Every cutoff between two years is an arbitrary line.

0 sats \ 2 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 6 Dec 2023

That's definitely one of the problems.

However, some of the fuzzy boundaries do help capture something. Entering the labor market during the Great Recession for instance was a formative experience for millenials that isn't shared by other generations.

681 sats \ 1 reply \ @tomlaies 6 Dec 2023

You can say that and it sounds plausible but it's not a reliable insight unless you can back it up with data. Anecdotes aren't data.

And social sciences often get muddy and complicated when you measure it. Simple narratives often don't have that strong of an observation afterwards. Although sometimes they do. Sometimes.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 6 Dec 2023

I'm not sure exactly how you'd back something like that up with data.

I also don't think the broader point is arguable. Millenials were all young adults or teenagers during the Great Recession, which is not the case for any other generations. In the same way, any other loosely defined generation will have experienced certain things at a different stage of life than other generations experienced the same events.

Just because there's no perfect way to draw certain distinctions, doesn't mean you can't capture something useful with imperfect distinctions. Of course, it's possible "generations" aren't a useful idea.

681 sats \ 4 replies \ @elvismercury 6 Dec 2023

Ha! I'm going to dig into this after the Broken Money book club. I share your skepticism, not so much in the idea, but the way it's approached, and the nature of the claims that are made.

Stay tuned.

681 sats \ 0 replies \ @SatsCats 6 Dec 2023

Maybe we should add "The Forth Turning" to the book club backlog

228 sats \ 2 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 6 Dec 2023

Is book club going to continue living in bitcoin territory?

681 sats \ 1 reply \ @elvismercury 6 Dec 2023

Any explicitly bitcoin stuff I do will for sure go there. If it's larger macro / systemic / cultural stuff I'll try to put it where it best goes.

Although honestly, given the pure number of hours it has taken, I dunno the next time I'll do it. It's not just reading the book and writing prompts and stuff, but trying to keep the discussion stirred is a massive lift. Still looking for the proper interaction model.

228 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined OP 6 Dec 2023

You're doing a great job. I've actually been pretty busy with work, so I've missed out on the most recent posts, but I'm still hoping to get a chance to weigh in.

10 sats \ 0 replies \ @cyberpunk02 6 Dec 2023

Great pyramids of giza are prolonged the best example of prolonged generational unity, because I'm guessing they are built by a tradition of honour handed down in families and not by some top down slave system.