What do you think will be the primary modes of transport we’ll be using to move people and/or cargo in 2040?
Bonus sats for a nuanced answer that covers the different scales of transportation too (last mile, local, regional, international, etc…)
Transportation has a lot of path dependence because what's possible depends on the existing infrastructure. So I think this answer depends a lot on the specific locale.
In Los Angeles, where I live, they're trying to expand the light rail network, which is much needed. But unfortunately the most needed direction, north/south between the city and the northern suburbs, is too difficult to build because of hills.
I don't have much hope that things will change much, since they haven't in the last two decades. The issue is that the city is already too built. New transportation paradigms require new infrastructure, but the political process for building/changing anything is just too damn slow and ineffective.
AI assisted driving could help, but I wonder by what factor. If cars can park themselves, that would at least help save some time even if it doesn't really do anything to lessen traffic.
I do see a lot of movement towards higher density housing though. This could potentially help as more people could live closer to work, and live in more walkable neighborhoods with housing and shops all near each other.
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Nice answer but difficulty is no excuse haha I live in Switzerland and I can tell you that specialists can build good trains anywhere. It's a question of money and political will really :)
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My vague generalization is that I think there will be open-source self-driving cars that all know each others' locations to make traffic more efficient.
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I remember Virgin was working on a supersonic jet that could get anyone anywhere in the world in ~3hrs, but not sure they may have nixed that plan for some reason
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I honestly thought by now we would have flying cars and be living on the moon!
Maybe one day ..
In the short term, hard to say cos public transport in many places is getting worse, not better. That drives everyone into their cars, which creates more traffic congestion. Cars are great for individual freedom but if we all drive we cant get anywhere!
So I think the solution will not be technical. In fact the tech already exists (bullet trains, self driving cars, metro systems, car sharing apps, even flying car prototypes!).
What we need is competition between cities/areas to determine the most appropriate solution, in different places. People may then move to the best location. I think that transportation is now such an issue it would be a giant pull factor for any area that got it right, then forcing other areas to improve.
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Problem is the current participants are vicious against any possible competition.They work very hard to prevent any alternativrs from arising, via the State.
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last mile, local, regional, international, etc…
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