What would it take for you to sell your bitcoin? \ stacker news ~bitcoin

What would it take for you to sell your bitcoin?

638 sats \ 11 comments \ @josh 21 Dec 2023 bitcoin

I have an interesting thought experiment for folks. Curious what you all think!

Imagine that there exists a risk-free bond that gives you $1 per year in real terms forever. At what price would you sell your bitcoin for this bond? In other words, what risk-free yield would you require to give up your bitcoin?

For example, if the price of the bond is $2 in real terms, you can receive a 50% return forever risk-free. If the price is $10, you can receive a 10% return forever risk-free, and so forth. Such returns would be unimaginably attractive to a conventional investor, but would they be to you?

1-5% per year33.3%

5-10% per year66.7%

10-20% per year0.0%

20-40% per year0.0%

40-60% per year0.0%

60-80% per year0.0%

80-100% per year0.0%

>100% per year0.0%

3 votes \ poll ended

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187 sats \ 0 replies \ @DesertDave 21 Dec 2023

1 btc = 1 btc

10 sats \ 0 replies \ @harrr 22 Dec 2023

Chasing yield is fiat thinking.

10 sats \ 0 replies \ @kytt 22 Dec 2023

20 sats \ 1 reply \ @k00b 21 Dec 2023

if the price of the bond is $2 in real terms, you can receive a 50% return forever risk-free. If the price is $10, you can receive a 10% return forever risk-free, and so forth.

Are you saying regardless of the size bond that you buy you get a $1 return?

There is an interesting thought experiment here: what "features" would another asset have to possess such that you would sell your bitcoin for it?

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @josh OP 21 Dec 2023

I'm glad you find it interesting! I like the way you phrased the question, that's precisely what I'm trying to get at.

To clarify the thought experiment, 1 bond gives you $1 per year in real terms forever. If you buy 2 bonds, you get $2 per year, and so forth.

In other words, if you could invest in a different asset that (1) lasts forever and (2) has a certain rate of return, what yield would you require such that you would consider selling your bitcoin?

2 sats \ 0 replies \ @cleaningup12 21 Dec 2023

TL-DR

1 sat \ 0 replies \ @nikotsla 22 Dec 2023

I just use BTC, don't sell.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @02bcd3eeb0 22 Dec 2023

Does "real terms" mean adjusted for USD money supply growth? Or adjusted for CPI?

What happens to your payout if the USD ceases to exist? Does it keep paying out the equivalent real value?

Bonds must have counterparties (since they are debt contracts), so there should always counterparty risk.. if it is truly "risk-free", who is issuing it? God?