Elon does a lot of smart stuff and then a bit of some dumb shit also, mostly for the lulz. I can't know his intention but putting up a billion dollars to secure the deal, with billions more owed is not something I think he would do without believing it will proceed. Maybe the landscape changed so he is trying to negotiate for a better price, but I myself do not think he is planning on backing out.
My initial impression of his strategy was that he was at first investing in it passively, then took interest in it such that he might be able to help it get past it's present obvious obstacles and bought enough interest to get their attention. Then he found, during initial negotiations that the present obstacles are irreversibly systemic and the company needed either an overhaul (rooting) or to be utterly destroyed for the good of mankind. What he has been doing all this time is taking a two-pronged approach where utter destruction may be the only resolution but he's doing diligence to leverage what good there is and transform it into something that will not be a tool of tyrrany. These goods being a base of widely accepted software and UX, combined with good concentration of customer loyalty and (false) perception of political neutrality. I believe his perception has been, since his "first and final offer" that the likelihood of a successful acquisition and reform of the organization is very low, and that this process will be the mechanism by which its wickedness will be brought out into the light.
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