286 sats \ 3 replies \ @shado_op OP 30 Dec 2023 \ parent \ on: Global economy continues to slow; India continues to shine... econ
Interesting question...Global geopolitics being what it is, it could be some kind of non-partisan "america first" economic strategy that would accelerate re-shoring and energy production, all in the interests of 'security'... Higher economic growth and taxes would ease the pain of higher gov debt. US is also, unlike Europe, more interested in tech developments that could possibly improve productivity (US productivity is already higher than Europe).
Would have it's own costs; higher inflation and conflict around net zero commitments, for example.
Ultimately, though, what may 'save' the US from it's gov debt issues is the fact that it may be worse elsewhere! Eg most of Europe, and many developing countries.
We shall soon find out...
what may 'save' the US from it's gov debt issues is the fact that it may be worse elsewhere!
That always seems to be what bails us out.
There are two approaches I anticipate if things get dire, not in any particular order:
- Selective defaults under geopolitical pretenses, i.e. not paying China back
- Financial regulations requiring large pension and university funds to hold a share of treasuries.
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Those are good points. Point 2 caught my eye. Because if I was trying to fix it, and this is pure speculation (!) I would want to replace short term gov debt with long term gov debt; remove the short term pressure in the next few years, giving breathing space to sort out the annual overspend; but getting enough buyers could be an issue. However, pension funds and insurers have long term liabilities. So if you make sure from a regs perspective it benefits pension and insurance funds to hold the debt (allow them to discount future liabilities against "safe" US gov debt, plus make sure they never have to mark to market for example) and add in some populist narrative about us all being in it together against an increasingly hostile world; imv you'd have an election winning strategy and a plausible policy objective...
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The political issue is probably that all those big funds are operated by powerful special interests. That must create a pretty strong headwind. Otherwise, it seems like a political no-brainer.
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