42 sats \ 2 replies \ @343pg 1 Jan
I suppose my goal is just to understand if fees are going to remain in the triple figures /vbyte, or will come back down to cheaper levels in the coming weeks/months. If they are coming back down, I'll simply wait.
Let's say I want to move 0.1 btc. I think what I'm trying to say is that if the blocks are full of others moving 1 btc at 100 sats/vbyte, then the data would show that the effective % fee they are paying is something like the following (I know the level will depend on data and UTXOs, but let's assume it's pretty simple and the overall fee is just 12x the rate for now in terms of working out a fee) -
12,000 sats fee Effective rate to move 1 btc 12,000 / 100,000,000 = 0.012%
Now my % rate for a similar transaction but only 0.1btc would be the same in absolute terms, but ten times that in relative terms. Long term, I'm simply going to have to pay more in relative terms to move bitcoin around to compete with those moving around larger amounts of bitcoin. In this sense, the fee rates are sustainable and it's an open market of competition.
Compare this to those spending 14,700 sats to move 20,000 sats. Now they may have an economic reason (in their mind) to carry that out, but it doesn't seem sustainable if Bitcoin 10x's in future. Whereas the person moving 1 btc will still be able to pay 100 sats/vbyte and maintain the fee in bitcoin denominated terms, as will I.
I hope that makes sense - finding it slightly hard to articulate!
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42 sats \ 0 replies \ @343pg 1 Jan
Yes - I think I understand those points and it’s very helpful, thank you. Sounds like any attempts to predict future fees are going to be fairly flawed by definition
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