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761 sats \ 10 replies \ @orthwyrm 1 Jan \ on: Stacker Saloon

Some 2024 predictions I pulled out my ass:

BTC hits $100k.
Attempts to filter out BRC-20, Stamps, etc. will be fruitless.
Public LN capacity will not grow significantly.
We will see an extended period where blocks carry +10 BTC fees.
Stacker News user count will grow significantly, NOSTR will kind of stagnate.

264 sats \ 2 replies \ @premitive1 1 Jan

nostr will stagnate? you mean technically? i think it already stagnated RE adoption

Was thinking more adoption, but I guess the two are related: Perhaps a lack of users leads to less incentives to innovate on the technical front.

50 sats \ 0 replies \ @premitive1 1 Jan

i think this is a pretty typical problem for open source projects, and perhaps even moreso with a protocol versus a specific software. Specific software distract from interoperability.

114 sats \ 6 replies \ @ek 1 Jan freebie

Public LN capacity will not grow significantly.

I see, someone did his homework 👀

Stacker News user count will grow significantly, NOSTR will kind of stagnate.

Shots fired 👀 Why do you think that?

btw, It seems like a lot can fit in your ass

478 sats \ 4 replies \ @orthwyrm 1 Jan

NOSTR and clients make many compromises to remain censorship-resistant and permissionless, but this currently isn't a big problem for the centralised platforms so the advantage is lost.

You guys are also better at "gaming" the UX to make it fun to post here so people keep coming back (rewards, cowboy hats, territories, etc.)

Lastly, I'm not sure if SN currently turns a profit, but judging by jb55's recent comments it seems like the clients are struggling to find product-market fit.

(If you think my ass is big now then wait til I start doing the squat challenge after I'm done with push-ups.)

100 sats \ 3 replies \ @premitive1 1 Jan

Does Damus still run a relay? and if so, then it's the relay, and definitely not the client, that's killing Damus.

0 sats \ 1 reply \ @orthwyrm 1 Jan

jb55 specifically mentioned client in his post so I just went with that:

50 sats \ 0 replies \ @premitive1 1 Jan

And maybe that's because his intention was to create a client and not a relay. He mentioned at bitcoin conference miami 2023 that he wanted to stop running a client because it costs so much money. as far as I know a client mostly just costs time.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @BlokchainB 1 Jan

Yes t

337 sats \ 0 replies \ @birdeye21 1 Jan

Stacker News user count will grow significantly, NOSTR will kind of stagnate.

I agree. Despite the decentralization of nostr, most of the world is still living among centralization. Looks to me like SN will stand to capture most of the immediate LN social media pioneers before decentralized protocols grow further.