697 sats \ 3 replies \ @kepford 2 Jan \ on: National Divorce aka Secession libertarian
There is an interesting test you can do on yourself or others. It goes like this.
You start with a national disagreement like Taiwan and China.
If a majority of people in Taiwan desire to be independent from China would China be justified in using force to stop them?
Then ask, if a majority of Texans wished to exit the USA would the USA be justified in using force to stop them?
If your answers are different then you have a logical problem. I'm not talking about constitutions or anything like that. I think people get tripped up with all of that and use flawed arguments to defend their biases. Many US citizens believe that the "civil war" decided this subject. If you believe this then you cannot defend Taiwan independence.
For those that believe Texas leaving the union would result in a new civil war I ask you to consider Brexit. I seriously doubt the USA would attack a state. I agree with Bob Murphy's hypothesis on this. It is certainly possible but unlikely.
I also do not see a state leaving the union for some time. I would be shocked to see it in the next 5 years. 10-25 years seems more likely though.
I think you're right about the timeline. If it were going to happen soon, we'd be seeing referenda and ballot initiatives already.
While the feds may not lead off with an attack on a state attempting to leave, they also wouldn't just sit by and watch. Would you be surprised if the CIA tried to overthrow the leadership of the new government or meddle in the election or arrest separatists under domestic terror statutes? It's a situation that could escalate pretty easily.
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I also suspect they do it currently, but I don't think it would lead to armed resistance unless the state was trying to break free of the US.
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