One of the most interesting observations we can make about ASIC profitability is the rapid expansion and compression of profit margins in response to changes in bitcoin price, particularly when it comes to older hardware. While older ASICs have a much lower hashrate output, they also consume less energy, meaning that USD-denominated revenues can quickly outpace operational costs during bull runs.

However, as the bitcoin price begins to decline (plotted in gray below), profit margins can collapse just as quickly. At the tail end of a bull market, older hardware becomes far less competitive— not only due to drops in BTC/USD, but also because newer hardware deployments begin to 'crowd out' models like the S9 and S17.

In the years since, S9 profitability declined substantially, yet it retained a meaningful foothold at around 20-30% of network hashrate. However, as the past few months of bitcoin price action have continued to suppress mining margins, it appears the S9 may be surrendering its role as a dominant player in the mining ecosystem. Nonetheless, like any ASIC, there's no clear line where the S9 becomes obsolete— a savvy miner with low enough power costs may still manage to squeeze out a small profit.